Assessing the regional impacts of the transition in China's power sector

Power sector transition will generate profound socio-economic impacts and reshape the regional distribution of benefits and burdens. This study integrates a spatially explicit power sector optimisation model with a multi-model assessment framework to provide a comprehensive assessment of the regional impacts for China's power sector transition. The results reveal that: (1) Decarbonisation produces substantial economic gains and jobs. Under the 1.5 °C scenario, GDP increases by 1737.12 billion Renminbi and 660.63 thousand additional operations & maintenance jobs are created compared to the business as usual (BAU) scenario. However, benefits are unevenly distributed, concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Gansu. Shandong, Hunan, and Hubei have low economic gains, accounting for only 4% of the national total, and facing re-employment challenges for coal power plant workers over 1000 km. (2) The co-benefits of air quality are significant, with nationwide decreases in particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5), sulfur dioxide, and oxynitride concentrations. In heavily polluted regions, PM2.5 concentrations fall from over 13 μg/m3 to below 3 μg/m3. The deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) leads to a pollutant rebound, with Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Guizhou projected to face higher PM2.5 concentrations. (3) Expansion of renewable energy results in significant water savings but requires large land inputs, 19.13–27.43 thousand km2, primarily in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Gansu. (4) The Gini index rises under decarbonisation scenarios, exacerbating regional inequalities. CCS can alleviate socio-economic inequalities to a certain extent. Shandong and the central provinces will bear heavier burdens compared to the BAU scenario.