Profit-driven CCS deployment in steel production processes under the dual pressure of CBAM and China's carbon market

Steel enterprises face increasing pressure from the dual regulatory frameworks of China's Carbon Trading Market and the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. To quantify economic tipping points for low-carbon transition, this study establishes a techno-economic optimization model integrating Lifecycle Assessment with profit-maximization. Simulations from 2025 to 2050 evaluate the adoption potential of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) under these synergistic constraints. Results indicate that enterprises begin to adopt CCS technology when the carbon price exceeds 300 CNY/t and the CCS technology cost decreases to below 280 CNY/t (representing a 40.4% reduction). Furthermore, simulations identify a profitability reversal point at 180 CNY/t, where enterprises with higher shares of short-process flows achieve superior economic performance. Specifically, the profitability advantage of the short-process structure expands significantly as the CCTM carbon price rises. Compared to the long-process production structure, the structure with a higher proportion of short processes exhibits a lower propensity for CCS adoption, as its lower carbon emissions reduce the urgency of carbon reduction. These findings offer precise data-driven references for corporate strategic planning and policy calibration.