Optimizing low-carbon pathways in Africa: Insights from emission decomposition and future scenarios

Amid rapid population growth, sustained economic development, and rising energy demand, Africa is becoming a critical region in global climate governance. To explore region-specific low-carbon pathways, this study analyzes historical CO2 drivers across Africa and its subregions and forecasts future energy-transition trajectories. Using an extended Kaya framework, this study decomposes CO2 into population, GDP per capita, energy intensity, and CO2 intensity, further disaggregating intensities by sector (agriculture, industry, services, unallocated) and energy type (coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, biomass and its wastes, hydropower, solar and wind, geothermal) to capture structural dynamics. A scenario-driven, deep-learning-enabled differentiable-programming optimization model is then integrated at the energy-system level (power and other end-use sectors) to project 2040 energy-mix trajectories, followed by a post-optimization decomposition. Results showed that solar and wind energy played an increasingly important role in emission reduction in Northern Africa and South Africa, at times surpassing hydropower. In Northern Africa, expansion of the service sector helps offset industry-driven increases in energy intensity, whereas weaker service-sector efficiency in Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa) has limited recent mitigation. Looking forward, SSP1 yields the lowest-cost, high-renewables power pathway led by solar and wind; by 2040, their shares in power generation reach 40%, 54%, and 21% in Northern Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa), and South Africa, respectively. The post-optimization decomposition indicates that renewable growth effectively counterbalances emissions increases associated with socioeconomic development. This study provides targeted policy suggestions and references for Africa and its different regions to achieve low-carbon energy development.