The synergy effect analysis of the green certificate-carbon bidirectional joint market based on the dynamic feedback of power producers and consumers

With the global trend of carbon neutrality, the market linkage between the carbon market and the green certificate market has drawn considerable attention. However, the market cooperation in China is facing significant challenges, as the green certificate market lacks vitality, and disputes persist over the carbon reduction effect. Meanwhile, the participation of energy-consuming enterprises has been less frequently considered in existing research. Therefore, this paper focuses on the green certificate-carbon bidirectional joint market, which includes both power producers and energy consumers, and analyzes its systematic effects on carbon emissions, renewable energy utilization, and economic benefits by a dynamic multi-agent and multi-stage interaction model. The scenario comparisons under different market mechanisms indicate that: (1) The Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mechanism can definitely subsidize renewable energy generation, but the additional green power generation needs the consumption requirement weight α exceed the ratio of the existing power generation to the power purchased by quota enterprises. (2) The green certificate-carbon quota conversion (GCC) mechanism under a voluntary green certificate market may have negative effects on the actual systematic carbon reduction. (3) Compared with a single carbon quota limitation, the combination of RPS and GCC can improve systematic carbon reduction by approximately 0.16C1.03% and economic benefits by around 0.5C3%. And the coordination of appropriate policy indicators is a key prerequisite.