Influence of different temperature levels on urban electricity demand in China under urbanization and industrialization

With global warming intensifying, extreme temperature events are become more frequent and severe, posing potential challenges to the stability and resilience of urban electricity systems. This study quantifies the impact of temperature changes on daily urban electricity demand across 296 Chinese cities, while examining how this impact varies with urbanization and industrialization levels. Results reveal that high temperature significantly accelerates urban electricity demand growth, but the magnitude of this effect exhibits heterogeneity that is closely linked to urban development stages. In rapid urbanization yet underdeveloped cities, each additional day with an average temperature between 27 °C and 32 °C increases electricity demand growth rate by 3.4%, due to increased cooling needs and the growing pressure on infrastructure. In highly industrialized cities, each day with temperatures exceeding 32 °C corresponds to a 1.6% increase in electricity demand growth rate, reflecting the sensitivity of electricity intensive industrial production to thermal stress. These findings underscore the critical role of urban development stage and industrial structure in shaping temperature-driven electricity demand patters. This study provides actionable insights for policymakers and urban energy planners to develop differentiated adaptation strategies, enhance infrastructure resilience, and accelerate the transition toward low-carbon, climate-resilient urban systems.