Projected impacts of multiple aerosols on future photovoltaic power generation and cloud impact separation

Aerosols modulate surface solar radiation, directly constraining the photovoltaic (PV) power, and thus emerge as a critical environmental determinant of solar energy conversion efficiency. This study quantified the impacts of aerosols and clouds on the potential and variability of PV power generation using CMIP6 datasets, and further examined the heterogeneous effects of different aerosol types on PV potential and volatility. Model simulations across Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) revealed a consistent declining trend in global PV power potential due to aerosols, with the rate of decrease escalating under higher-emission scenarios. By 2100, the global average PV potential is projected to decrease by 3.962 % and 4.589 % under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, from 2015 to 2100, the global average volatility of photovoltaic power generation is projected to decline under low-emission scenarios but is expected to increase under high-emission pathways. Meanwhile, the impact of cloud cover was also quantified, revealing a consistent detrimental effect on both potential and stability of PV power generation. Furthermore, we applied interpretable machine learning to identify and rank the drivers among aerosol components that affect the potential and variability of PV power generation. Among all emission scenarios, sea salt aerosols, sulfate aerosols, and dust aerosols are the primary contributors to the reduction of PV potential. In terms of variability, organic and dust aerosols play a dominant role under SSP1-2.6, while sea salt aerosols emerge as more influential across the other three SSP scenarios.