Decoupling analysis of energy-water-carbon resource environmental pressures from China's economy: an embodied perspective from the consumption side

Under the global transition to a green economy, achieving decoupling between environmental pressures and economic benefits have become central to sustainable development goals. As a major resource consumer and exporter of embodied environmental burdens, China requires a shift beyond production-based metrics to evaluate the decoupling of environmental pressures from economic benefits and its underlying drivers. Existing studies often neglect the decoupling relationship and its mechanisms from the perspective of embodied energy-water-carbon flows within the national economic system. To fill this gap, this study proposes a three-stage “measure-decoupling-decomposition” analytical framework to examine the relationship between energy-water-carbon (EWC) resource environmental pressures and economic performance across 30 provinces in China, along with their driving factors. The findings reveal that, (1) Embodied energy and carbon emissions exhibit an east-high, west-low pattern, while virtual water consumption shows a north-south divide. The composite EWC pressure index follows an inverted U-shaped trend with a west-high, east-low spatial gradient. (2) Most provinces experience strong or weak decoupling, but transitional coupling remains in regions such as Liaoning, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia. (3) Technological and structural effects emerge as key drivers of decoupling, while scale effects significantly inhibit it, with population factors playing a relatively minor role. This study provides evidence to support regionally differentiated green transition strategies and offers sustainable development pathways for developing countries to overcome the “resource curse”.