A novel grey model driven by policy shifts and technological progress and its application in China's wind power supply prediction

To overcome the limitations of traditional models based solely on statistical data characteristics, this study constructs a novel grey model from the perspective of integrating system characteristics and data characteristics. Building on the integration of system development mechanisms and model construction principles, this study introduces policy and technology dummy variables, representing them as grey action quantities that drive the evolution of the energy system. This approach assigns practical meaning to model parameters from the perspective of system development, and quantifies the strength of system driving forces from the perspective of model solution. The policy dummy variables are expressed by using piecewise functions to represent the changes across different stages of the policy. The continuous progress of technology, with cumulative effects, is represented using a power exponential term. The relevant parameters are solved and optimized by the PSO algorithm to effectively capture the system's dynamic features. Using the proposed model, a predictive analysis of wind power generation in China is conducted and compared with results from traditional models. The findings indicate that the proposed model demonstrates superior forecasting performance. Moreover, it enables the quantification of the driving forces within the system and captures the underlying mechanisms of energy supply fluctuations, thereby offering a novel perspective and methodological support for forecasting and modeling energy supply systems.