IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v335y2025ics0360544225036928.html

Multi-layer fusion model based on decomposition denoising and intelligent algorithms for wind speed prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Jun
  • Zhang, Yagang
  • Liu, Ke
  • Zhao, Chunyang
  • Wang, Hui

Abstract

The proportion of wind energy within the renewable energy market has steadily increased, making it a key driver in advancing global clean energy development. Owing to the complexity of atmospheric perturbations and nonlinear features of wind speed data, this paper presents a multi-layer fusion model combining atmospheric perturbations and intelligent algorithms. Firstly, establishing a new data processing method, Savitzky-Golay optimized Variational Mode Decomposition (S-VMD), which uses the VMD to decompose the wind speed sequence into multiple IMFs and denoises the high-frequency components using a Savitzky-Golay filter based on the composite multiscale entropy (CMSE) of each modal component. Then, the Slime Mould Algorithm-based Optimizer (SMABO) is proposed to refine the CNN-BIGRU hybrid model for wind speed prediction. Given the characteristics of wind, this research combines the Weibull distribution with the Lorenz equation to derive the sequence of atmospheric disturbances, which are used to quantify atmospheric uncertainty. Additionally, the prediction error is corrected through the optimization of the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBOOST) algorithm for the model's error sequence. Compared with other models, the proposed hybrid model achieves an overall improvement of 16.6 %, 13.1 % and 12.9 % in prediction accuracy on three different wind farm datasets, respectively, while maintaining the MAE below 0.2.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Jun & Zhang, Yagang & Liu, Ke & Zhao, Chunyang & Wang, Hui, 2025. "Multi-layer fusion model based on decomposition denoising and intelligent algorithms for wind speed prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:335:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225036928
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.138050
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544225036928
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2025.138050?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhehui Chen & Simon Mak & C. F. Jeff Wu, 2024. "A Hierarchical Expected Improvement Method for Bayesian Optimization," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 119(546), pages 1619-1632, April.
    2. Ghorbani, Narges & Kasaeian, Alibakhsh & Toopshekan, Ashkan & Bahrami, Leyli & Maghami, Amin, 2018. "Optimizing a hybrid wind-PV-battery system using GA-PSO and MOPSO for reducing cost and increasing reliability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 581-591.
    3. Amjad Ali & Marc Audi & Yannick Roussel, 2021. "Natural Resources Depletion, Renewable Energy Consumption and Environmental Degradation: A Comparative Analysis of Developed and Developing World," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 251-260.
    4. Hu, Weicheng & Yang, Qingshan & Chen, Hua-Peng & Yuan, Ziting & Li, Chen & Shao, Shuai & Zhang, Jian, 2021. "New hybrid approach for short-term wind speed predictions based on preprocessing algorithm and optimization theory," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 2174-2186.
    5. Han, Qinkai & Ma, Sai & Wang, Tianyang & Chu, Fulei, 2019. "Kernel density estimation model for wind speed probability distribution with applicability to wind energy assessment in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Zhang, Yong & Xin, Yuqi & Liu, Zhi-wei & Chi, Ming & Ma, Guijun, 2022. "Health status assessment and remaining useful life prediction of aero-engine based on BiGRU and MMoE," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    7. Zhang, Yagang & Wang, Hui & Wang, Jingchao & Cheng, Xiaodan & Wang, Tong & Zhao, Zheng, 2024. "Ensemble optimization approach based on hybrid mode decomposition and intelligent technology for wind power prediction system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    8. Trizoglou, Pavlos & Liu, Xiaolei & Lin, Zi, 2021. "Fault detection by an ensemble framework of Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) in the operation of offshore wind turbines," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 945-962.
    9. Yang, Rui & Liu, Hui & Nikitas, Nikolaos & Duan, Zhu & Li, Yanfei & Li, Ye, 2022. "Short-term wind speed forecasting using deep reinforcement learning with improved multiple error correction approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    10. Yu, Chuanjin & Li, Yongle & Chen, Qian & Lai, Xiaopan & Zhao, Liyang, 2022. "Matrix-based wavelet transformation embedded in recurrent neural networks for wind speed prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    11. Zhang, Jun & Zhang, Yagang & Liu, Ke & Zhao, Chunyang, 2025. "Multi-step prediction of spatio-temporal wind speed based on the multimodal coupled ST-DFNet model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    12. Kavasseri, Rajesh G. & Seetharaman, Krithika, 2009. "Day-ahead wind speed forecasting using f-ARIMA models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1388-1393.
    13. Younes, Mimoun & Khodja, Fouad & Kherfane, Riad Lakhdar, 2014. "Multi-objective economic emission dispatch solution using hybrid FFA (firefly algorithm) and considering wind power penetration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 595-606.
    14. Li, Ranran & Jin, Yu, 2018. "A wind speed interval prediction system based on multi-objective optimization for machine learning method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 2207-2220.
    15. Liu, Hongyi & Han, Hua & Sun, Yao & Shi, Guangze & Su, Mei & Liu, Zhangjie & Wang, Hongfei & Deng, Xiaofei, 2022. "Short-term wind power interval prediction method using VMD-RFG and Att-GRU," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    16. Li, Dan & Jiang, Fuxin & Chen, Min & Qian, Tao, 2022. "Multi-step-ahead wind speed forecasting based on a hybrid decomposition method and temporal convolutional networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    17. Zhang, Yagang & Zhao, Yunpeng & Shen, Xiaoyu & Zhang, Jinghui, 2022. "A comprehensive wind speed prediction system based on Monte Carlo and artificial intelligence algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    18. Oliveira Santos, Victor & Costa Rocha, Paulo Alexandre & Scott, John & Van Griensven Thé, Jesse & Gharabaghi, Bahram, 2023. "Spatiotemporal analysis of bidimensional wind speed forecasting: Development and thorough assessment of LSTM and ensemble graph neural networks on the Dutch database," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    19. Ruiz de la Hermosa González-Carrato, Raúl & García Márquez, Fausto Pedro & Dimlaye, Vichaar, 2015. "Maintenance management of wind turbines structures via MFCs and wavelet transforms," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 472-482.
    20. Wang, Jianzhou & Niu, Tong & Lu, Haiyan & Guo, Zhenhai & Yang, Wendong & Du, Pei, 2018. "An analysis-forecast system for uncertainty modeling of wind speed: A case study of large-scale wind farms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 492-512.
    21. Wang, Shouxiang & Zhang, Na & Wu, Lei & Wang, Yamin, 2016. "Wind speed forecasting based on the hybrid ensemble empirical mode decomposition and GA-BP neural network method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 629-636.
    22. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Li, Yan-fei, 2012. "Comparison of two new ARIMA-ANN and ARIMA-Kalman hybrid methods for wind speed prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 415-424.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Yun & Duan, Xiaocong & Zhang, Fan & Wu, Guang & Zou, Runmin & Wan, Jie & Hu, Qinghua, 2025. "MFFDM-WLS: A multi-granularity feature-based coherent forecasting method for temporal hierarchical wind speed time series," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 400(C).
    2. Zhang, Yagang & Wang, Hui & Wang, Jingchao & Cheng, Xiaodan & Wang, Tong & Zhao, Zheng, 2024. "Ensemble optimization approach based on hybrid mode decomposition and intelligent technology for wind power prediction system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    3. Jin, Huaiping & Zhang, Kehao & Fan, Shouyuan & Jin, Huaikang & Wang, Bin, 2024. "Wind power forecasting based on ensemble deep learning with surrogate-assisted evolutionary neural architecture search and many-objective federated learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    4. Ai, Chunyu & He, Shan & Hu, Heng & Fan, Xiaochao & Wang, Weiqing, 2023. "Chaotic time series wind power interval prediction based on quadratic decomposition and intelligent optimization algorithm," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    5. Leng, Zhiyuan & Chen, Lu & Yi, Bin & Liu, Fanqian & Xie, Tao & Mei, Ziyi, 2025. "Short-term wind speed forecasting based on a novel KANInformer model and improved dual decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    6. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Zhao, Yongning & Dai, Binhua & Pei, Ming & Tang, Yong, 2021. "Review of meta-heuristic algorithms for wind power prediction: Methodologies, applications and challenges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    7. Lei Zhang & Lun Xie & Qinkai Han & Zhiliang Wang & Chen Huang, 2020. "Probability Density Forecasting of Wind Speed Based on Quantile Regression and Kernel Density Estimation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-24, November.
    8. He, Qingqing & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan, 2018. "A hybrid system for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 756-771.
    9. Sandra Minerva Valdivia-Bautista & José Antonio Domínguez-Navarro & Marco Pérez-Cisneros & Carlos Jesahel Vega-Gómez & Beatriz Castillo-Téllez, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence in Wind Speed Forecasting: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-28, March.
    10. Fan Li & Hongzhen Wang & Dan Wang & Dong Liu & Ke Sun, 2025. "A Review of Wind Power Prediction Methods Based on Multi-Time Scales," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-47, March.
    11. Sun, Xiaoying & Liu, Haizhong, 2024. "Multivariate short-term wind speed prediction based on PSO-VMD-SE-ICEEMDAN two-stage decomposition and Att-S2S," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    12. Jiang, Ping & Wang, Biao & Li, Hongmin & Lu, Haiyan, 2019. "Modeling for chaotic time series based on linear and nonlinear framework: Application to wind speed forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 468-482.
    13. Zhou, Qingguo & Wang, Chen & Zhang, Gaofeng, 2019. "Hybrid forecasting system based on an optimal model selection strategy for different wind speed forecasting problems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1559-1580.
    14. Neeraj Bokde & Andrés Feijóo & Nadhir Al-Ansari & Siyu Tao & Zaher Mundher Yaseen, 2020. "The Hybridization of Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Forecasting Models: Application of Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-23, April.
    15. Zhao, Ning & Su, Yi & Dai, Xianxing & Jia, Shaomin & Wang, Xuewei, 2024. "A new decomposition-ensemble strategy fusion with correntropy optimization learning algorithms for short-term wind speed prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    16. Zhang, Yagang & Pan, Zhiya & Wang, Hui & Wang, Jingchao & Zhao, Zheng & Wang, Fei, 2023. "Achieving wind power and photovoltaic power prediction: An intelligent prediction system based on a deep learning approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    17. Wang, Yun & Zhang, Fan & Kou, Hongbo & Zou, Runmin & Hu, Qinghua & Wang, Jianzhou & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2025. "A review of predictive uncertainty modeling techniques and evaluation metrics in probabilistic wind speed and wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 396(C).
    18. Lin, Boqiang & Zhang, Chongchong, 2021. "A novel hybrid machine learning model for short-term wind speed prediction in inner Mongolia, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1565-1577.
    19. Cheng, Runkun & Yang, Di & Liu, Da & Zhang, Guowei, 2024. "A reconstruction-based secondary decomposition-ensemble framework for wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    20. Zonggui Yao & Chen Wang, 2018. "A Hybrid Model Based on A Modified Optimization Algorithm and An Artificial Intelligence Algorithm for Short-Term Wind Speed Multi-Step Ahead Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-33, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:335:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225036928. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.