Medium- and long-term hydrogen demand forecast in China: A multi-sector and multi-region analysis

Hydrogen energy, as a crucial carrier for achieving green and low-carbon transformation of energy end-use systems, plays an essential role in driving the energy system toward decarbonization and diversification. Forecasting future hydrogen demand is crucial for understanding development trends and informing production planning and infrastructure layout. This study develops a multi-scenario hydrogen demand forecasting framework that integrates the LEAP model with the Markov method. It covers three major sectors—industry, transportation, and buildings—as well as 15 sub-sectors such as steel and cement. Compared with existing studies, this approach provides a more detailed and spatially explicit analysis of hydrogen demand across multiple sectors and regions in China. The findings are as follows: (1) Hydrogen demand varies significantly under different scenarios. By 2050, total demand is projected to reach 30.79 million tons in the baseline scenario, 52.39 million tons in the low hydrogen penetration scenario, and 81.68 million tons in the high penetration scenario. (2) From a sectoral perspective, the industry and transportation sectors are the primary drivers of hydrogen demand. Industrial demand is projected to reach 50.18 million tons and transportation demand 24.13 million tons under the high penetration pathway. The building sector shows notable hydrogen use only under the transition scenarios, reaching 4.91 and 7.37 million tons respectively. (3) Spatially, hydrogen consumption will evolve from concentration in eastern coastal provinces in 2022 to a more balanced nationwide distribution by 2050. The share of demand from central and western regions is expected to exceed half of the national total.