Social license for the hydrogen economy: Evidence from a choice-based conjoint study on public acceptance

The integration of green hydrogen into future energy systems presents a critical challenge, not only in terms of technological deployment but also in achieving broad-based public acceptance, particularly where infrastructure siting and local impacts are concerned. This study aims to investigate how different compensation schemes, trust in institutions, and facility attributes influence public support for hydrogen infrastructure projects across three distinct regions in Germany, each representing varying levels of industrialization, public awareness, and energy infrastructure readiness. To achieve this, a discrete choice experiment using a Choice-Based Conjoint (CBC) design was conducted with 612 participants, and individual-level preference estimations were derived using a Hierarchical Bayes (HB) model. The model demonstrated robust performance, with a holdout task prediction accuracy of 79.2 % and RMSE of 0.163. Empirical results show that proximity to hydrogen facilities (-€424 WTA at 1 km), direct cash compensation (valued over symbolic gestures like tree planting), and safety record significantly influence acceptance. Public trust emerged as a critical moderating factor, with support levels dropping from 61.5 % to 38.1 % in low-trust scenarios, even under constant technological parameters. Sensitivity analysis further revealed that a 20 % increase in electricity prices and sociopolitical instability together reduce public support to 32.6 % while raising the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) to €4.89/kg. The study finds that the absence of financial incentives and stakeholder engagement significantly undermines support for green hydrogen projects, highlighting the importance of a tiered and transparent compensation framework in future energy infrastructure deployment.