Evaluating the district cooling potential for India using a GIS-based top-down approach

The energy demand for cooling in India is projected to double between 2017 and 2027, driven by rapid urbanisation, rising temperatures, and increased access to appliances. As of 2017, approximately 42 % of this demand was met by inefficient, refrigerant-based air conditioners (approximately 42 million units), which contributed significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. In light of India's climate commitments and the Kigali Amendment, which targets the reduction of hydrofluorocarbons, District Cooling (DC) emerges as a more sustainable and scalable alternative. Although air coolers and fans remain widespread, they often fail to meet the standards for maintaining thermal comfort and indoor air quality set by ASHRAE. The centralised nature of DC enhances energy efficiency, supports integration with renewable sources, and enables equitable access to cooling services. Yet, most existing approaches for assessing cooling demand and district cooling viability rely on detailed building-level data, which are often unavailable in developing countries like India. This study presents a top-down, GIS-based approach to evaluate the spatial and economic potential for district cooling deployment in India, incorporating climate zones, population density, and national energy balances. To our knowledge, this is the first national-scale assessment that spatially quantifies DC potential by integrating cooling degree days with high-resolution (250m × 250m) population grids and energy demand indicators. The method is designed to be replicable in other data-constrained contexts, making it relevant for developing countries facing similar challenges. A sensitivity analysis assesses economic feasibility based on cooling demand density thresholds and regional climatic conditions. Results show a total estimated cooling demand of 3780 TWh for 2017, with approximately 75.9 % located in grid zones exceeding 1000 MWh/year, deemed economically viable for DC expansion. States such as Uttar Pradesh (881.3 TWh/year), Bihar (404.6 TWh/year), and Maharashtra (308.3 TWh/year) are identified as high-priority regions. Local cooling hotspots show demand densities reaching up to 529 GWh/year per 250m × 250m grid. These findings highlight both the urgency and opportunity to scale district cooling systems across India and offer a practical planning framework for sustainable cooling in rapidly urbanising, high-temperature regions globally.