Evaluating the potential of battery-swapping service for electric vehicles: The role of supply-side policies and demand-side time sensitivity

Developing efficient energy replenishment infrastructure is critical for the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). Battery-swapping services provide a promising solution to address user time sensitivity and diversify replenishment options. This study develops a two-stage model to capture the dynamic interactions among EV adoption, replenishment activities, and station investments. The first-stage utilizes Hotelling model to portray consumers’ time-sensitivity. The second-stage uses a complex network evolutionary game to examine operators’ investment decisions among charging stations (CS), battery-swapping stations (BSS), and battery charging-swapping stations (BCSS). Dynamic policy incentives are incorporated. Results reveal a diffusion path of “CS dominant → BSS inverted U-shaped diffusion → BCSS dominant.” On the supply-side, consumers prioritize vehicle costs and service convenience, making operation subsidies less impactful on battery-swapping mode (BSM) development than purchase and construction subsidies. Optimal subsidy levels and efficient expenditure ranges are identified. Under fiscal constraints, prioritizing consumer subsidies significantly boosts BSM diffusion. On the demand-side, when highly time-sensitive consumers make up 60% of the market, BSS coverage best aligns with demand. From a cost-benefit perspective, if off-peak electricity price is high, lowering service costs does not make swapping service a viable option. And battery reserves should be kept within reasonable levels.