Analyzing the supply-demand dynamics of critical minerals for clean energy technologies: Impact of per value-added energy intensity

As the global energy landscape shifts toward decarbonization, clean energy technologies have become essential for reducing reliance on fossil fuels. These technologies, however, are critically dependent on energy transition minerals, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements. While energy transition minerals enable the deployment of low-carbon technologies, their extraction, transportation, and processing generate environmental externalities, particularly in the form of greenhouse gas emissions. This study is motivated by the need to understand the complex dynamics between mineral demand, clean energy technology deployment, and environmental sustainability in the energy sector. This study investigates the relationship between mineral demand for clean technologies and energy-related greenhouse gas emissions across 21 International Energy Agency (IEA) countries from 1999 to 2022. Our findings reveal that a 1 % increase in the overall demand for crucial energy transition minerals results in a 0.7235 % rise in GHG emissions from energy, underscoring the environmental cost associated with mineral-intensive development pathways. However, when clean technology sectors disaggregate mineral demand, a 1 % increase leads to a 0.2936 % reduction in energy-related GHG emissions, demonstrating the net environmental benefits of targeted clean technology deployment. These insights highlight a critical policy tension: while energy transition minerals are indispensable to clean energy transitions, their environmental footprint must be addressed through sustainable extraction methods, emissions-reducing supply chain practices, and innovations in low-impact processing. A coordinated effort among governments, industry stakeholders, and research institutions is essential to ensure that mineral-intensive technologies contribute to a truly sustainable and inclusive energy future.