Will China follow the same process of building carbon peak as the US? Evidence from the building carbon peak pattern

Building carbon peak patterns are crucial to successfully guiding the building sector to achieve the carbon peak target and are also a prerequisite for developing a reasonable and practical carbon reduction action plan. This study constructs an evaluation model of building carbon emissions peak patterns based on the Kaya identity and verifies the carbon peak pattern by using US building carbon emission data to find the general pattern of carbon emission peaks in the building sector. On this basis, we use the pattern to determine the development stage of China's building carbon emissions and then by comparing the carbon reduction efficiency of China and the US, we make further judgment on the future development trend of China's building carbon emissions. The results show that, in general, the building carbon emissions peak follows a phased peak pattern of peaking carbon emissions per unit of floor space first, then peaking carbon emissions per capita of buildings, and finally, peaking carbon emissions of buildings. In addition, to successfully achieve the carbon peak target of China's building sector by 2030, the carbon reduction efficiency of the building sector should be further improved based on the average carbon reduction efficiency of 1.38 % (η‾2012−2020=1.38%). This study is of great significance for improving the accuracy of peak evolution path prediction in the building sector and provides an essential reference for developing carbon reduction action plans in countries and regions that have not yet achieved carbon peak in the building sector.