Estimating Brazil's green hydrogen export potential through simulated long-term scenarios

Brazil has the potential to become a major player in the green hydrogen (GH2) market due to its abundant renewable energy resources. A system dynamics model was used to evaluate Brazil's GH2 production potential, with a focus on exports to Germany. The model projects that Brazil's renewable energy capacity could reach an average of 649 GW by 2050, with both baseline growth and GH2-driven expansion. This could result in an average annual GH2 production of 18 million tons. Despite Brazil's potential, results indicate that its pace of hydrogen ramp-up is slower than other competitors, and additional efforts are needed to become competitive globally. Even with a slower pace, Brazil could still capture a significant share (17 %) of the German GH2 import market by 2050. To achieve this, substantial investments in renewable energy infrastructure, and electrolyzer capacity (up to 200 GW) are crucial. This expansion would facilitate GH2 production and address potential energy deficits. The model also highlights the importance of policies that allocate a portion of GH2 for domestic use, ensuring its low-carbon advantage.