The impact of digital economy on carbon emissions: Based on the rebound effect

Developing the digital economy is considered a new pathway to achieve China's “dual carbon” goals (carbon peaking and carbon neutrality), yet its rebound effect on carbon emissions remains underexplored. This paper develops an evaluation system to measure the development level of the digital economy from four dimensions: internet platforms, digital information, digital technology levels, and new economic models and business types. Using the spatial Durbin model, the paper investigates the existence of the rebound effect, then quantifies its magnitude through a hybrid approach integrating the LMDI decomposition method, Solow model, and spatial econometric analysis. The results demonstrate that the digital economy amplifies local carbon intensity while reducing emissions in neighboring regions, thereby confirming the significant rebound effect within locals. Notably, the spatial spillover effect of the digital economy alleviates the rebound effect, while an inefficient energy structure amplifies it. Industrial structure upgrading also aids in mitigating the rebound effect. Importantly, the direct rebound effect of the digital economy is stronger than its spatial counterpart, both displaying an inverted U-shaped trend.