Development of a factorial hydroengineering equilibrium analysis model for analyzing direct and indirect socio-economic and environmental effects of large-scale hydropower projects

The assessment of the socio-economic environment (SEE) impacts of large-scale hydropower projects (LHPs) are both controversial and challenging, particularly due to their multifunctional development, further complicating the evaluation process. Therefore, a comprehensive assessment of SEE impacts of LHPs is essential for the future sustainability and scalability of hydropower. In this study, a factorial hydroengineering general equilibrium analysis model (FGEA) is developed for investigating both direct and indirect SEE effects of LHPs, as well as the effects from a variety of water-related parameters and their interactions. The proposed FGEA was employed to analyze multidimensional SEE effects of the Xiluodu Hydropower Project (XLD) which is the 4th largest LHP in the world. Results indicate that in 2017, the operation of XLD generated 23.92 billion yuan in indirect GDP for YREB through the supply chain, approximately 1.32 times the direct GDP. Among the contributing factors, factor B (electricity generation) accounted for 76.43 % of this growth, while factor E (LHP management cost) contributed 23.48 %. However, this economic growth resulted in a total of 1.64 million tons (Mt) of CO2 emissions, comprising 0.28 Mt of direct emissions and 1.36 Mt of indirect emissions through the supply chain. It is expected that the modeling results of FGEA will help support the formulation of desired management policies.