IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v333y2025ics0360544225027318.html

Estimating the seasonal variation in electricity demand of future electric vehicle fleets

Author

Listed:
  • Jack, Michael W.
  • Paulsen, Pablo
  • Xiao, Xun
  • Parker, Rafferty
  • Myall, Daniel

Abstract

Large-scale uptake of electric vehicles will contribute to emission reductions but may also challenge future highly-renewable electricity grids. Daily variation in charging demand can be synchronized with renewable supply and moved out of grid congestion periods using a range of storage and demand shifting technologies. However, seasonal variation in charging demand, which could add to increasingly-electrified building space-heating demand, is potentially much more difficult to resolve. We develop a statistical model of monthly vehicle energy intensity (Wh/km) based on a citizen-science sourced dataset of multi-year charging data from >1000 vehicles. The model depends on electric vehicle model type, heating and cooling degree day, and location, and can be used to predict seasonal variation in vehicle energy intensity in any climate zone given a distribution of vehicle models. We use the model to explore the seasonal variation in electricity demand from future large scale electric vehicle uptake in New Zealand. We find that electricity consumption for vehicle charging can vary seasonally by up to 16% in some regions and increase winter monthly consumption by up to 30%. These results have implications for future electricity infrastructure planning. The major uncertainties in these projections stem from the difficulty in estimating the energy intensity of the electric vehicle models that will make up the future fleet.

Suggested Citation

  • Jack, Michael W. & Paulsen, Pablo & Xiao, Xun & Parker, Rafferty & Myall, Daniel, 2025. "Estimating the seasonal variation in electricity demand of future electric vehicle fleets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:333:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225027318
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.137089
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544225027318
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2025.137089?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Siobhan Powell & Gustavo Vianna Cezar & Liang Min & Inês M. L. Azevedo & Ram Rajagopal, 2022. "Charging infrastructure access and operation to reduce the grid impacts of deep electric vehicle adoption," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(10), pages 932-945, October.
    2. Seljom, Pernille & Lindberg, Karen Byskov & Tomasgard, Asgeir & Doorman, Gerard & Sartori, Igor, 2017. "The impact of Zero Energy Buildings on the Scandinavian energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 284-296.
    3. Graabak, Ingeborg & Wu, Qiuwei & Warland, Leif & Liu, Zhaoxi, 2016. "Optimal planning of the Nordic transmission system with 100% electric vehicle penetration of passenger cars by 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 648-660.
    4. Strbac, Goran, 2008. "Demand side management: Benefits and challenges," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 4419-4426, December.
    5. Jack, M.W. & Mirfin, A. & Anderson, B., 2021. "The role of highly energy-efficient dwellings in enabling 100% renewable electricity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    6. Zachary A. Needell & James McNerney & Michael T. Chang & Jessika E. Trancik, 2016. "Potential for widespread electrification of personal vehicle travel in the United States," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 1(9), pages 1-7, September.
    7. Liu, Kai & Wang, Jiangbo & Yamamoto, Toshiyuki & Morikawa, Takayuki, 2018. "Exploring the interactive effects of ambient temperature and vehicle auxiliary loads on electric vehicle energy consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C), pages 324-331.
    8. Al-Wreikat, Yazan & Serrano, Clara & Sodré, José Ricardo, 2022. "Effects of ambient temperature and trip characteristics on the energy consumption of an electric vehicle," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    9. Wei Wei & Sankaran Ramakrishnan & Zachary A. Needell & Jessika E. Trancik, 2021. "Personal vehicle electrification and charging solutions for high-energy days," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 105-114, January.
    10. Weitemeyer, Stefan & Kleinhans, David & Vogt, Thomas & Agert, Carsten, 2015. "Integration of Renewable Energy Sources in future power systems: The role of storage," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 14-20.
    11. Matteo Muratori, 2018. "Impact of uncoordinated plug-in electric vehicle charging on residential power demand," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(3), pages 193-201, March.
    12. Juan A. Dominguez-Jimenez & Javier E. Campillo & Oscar Danilo Montoya & Enrique Delahoz & Jesus C. Hernández, 2020. "Seasonality Effect Analysis and Recognition of Charging Behaviors of Electric Vehicles: A Data Science Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-18, September.
    13. Staffell, Iain & Pfenninger, Stefan, 2018. "The increasing impact of weather on electricity supply and demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 65-78.
    14. Crozier, Constance & Morstyn, Thomas & McCulloch, Malcolm, 2020. "The opportunity for smart charging to mitigate the impact of electric vehicles on transmission and distribution systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    15. Chengjian Xu & Paul Behrens & Paul Gasper & Kandler Smith & Mingming Hu & Arnold Tukker & Bernhard Steubing, 2023. "Electric vehicle batteries alone could satisfy short-term grid storage demand by as early as 2030," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    16. Lund, Peter D. & Lindgren, Juuso & Mikkola, Jani & Salpakari, Jyri, 2015. "Review of energy system flexibility measures to enable high levels of variable renewable electricity," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 785-807.
    17. Peacock, Malcolm & Fragaki, Aikaterini & Matuszewski, Bogdan J, 2023. "The impact of heat electrification on the seasonal and interannual electricity demand of Great Britain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    18. Denholm, Paul & Hand, Maureen, 2011. "Grid flexibility and storage required to achieve very high penetration of variable renewable electricity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1817-1830, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Zhibin & Li, Lei & Ding, Xiaoyin & Wang, Xia & Liu, Zhiheng & Wang, Yawen & Hu, Changpeng, 2025. "Anomaly detection for real-world electric vehicle charging data using a convolutional autoencoder with multiscale convolution, attention mechanism, and BiLSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jack, M.W. & Mirfin, A. & Anderson, B., 2021. "The role of highly energy-efficient dwellings in enabling 100% renewable electricity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. Steinbach, Sarah A. & Blaschke, Maximilian J., 2024. "Enabling electric mobility: Can photovoltaic and home battery systems significantly reduce grid reinforcement costs?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 375(C).
    3. Akhmetov, Yerbol & Fedotova, Ekaterina & Frysztacki, Martha Maria, 2025. "Flattening the peak demand curve through energy efficient buildings: A holistic approach towards net-zero carbon," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 384(C).
    4. Sarah A. Steinbach & Maximilian J. Blaschke, 2024. "How grid reinforcement costs differ by the income of electric vehicle users," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Siobhan Powell & Gustavo Vianna Cezar & Liang Min & Inês M. L. Azevedo & Ram Rajagopal, 2022. "Charging infrastructure access and operation to reduce the grid impacts of deep electric vehicle adoption," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(10), pages 932-945, October.
    6. Adeline Gu'eret & Carlos Gaete-Morales & Wolf-Peter Schill, 2025. "A moderate share of V2G outperforms large-scale smart charging of electric vehicles and benefits other consumers," Papers 2509.15284, arXiv.org.
    7. Steren, Aviv & Parag, Yael & Teschner, Na'ama & Zemah-Shamir, Shiri, 2025. "Consumer preferences and willingness to pay for EV charging: Implications for incentives to promote off-peak charging and renewables integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 392(C).
    8. Zhao, Yang & Jiang, Ziyue & Chen, Xinyu & Liu, Peng & Peng, Tianduo & Shu, Zhan, 2023. "Toward environmental sustainability: data-driven analysis of energy use patterns and load profiles for urban electric vehicle fleets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    9. Maarten Wolsink, 2020. "Framing in Renewable Energy Policies: A Glossary," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-31, June.
    10. Stinner, Sebastian & Huchtemann, Kristian & Müller, Dirk, 2016. "Quantifying the operational flexibility of building energy systems with thermal energy storages," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 140-154.
    11. Vogl, Jonathan & Kleinebrahm, Max & Raab, Moritz & McKenna, Russell & Fichtner, Wolf, 2025. "A review of challenges and opportunities in occupant modeling for future residential energy demand," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 76, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
    12. Mauro Lafratta & Matthew Leach & Rex B. Thorpe & Mark Willcocks & Eve Germain & Sabeha K. Ouki & Achame Shana & Jacquetta Lee, 2021. "Economic and Carbon Costs of Electricity Balancing Services: The Need for Secure Flexible Low-Carbon Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-21, August.
    13. Xin, Qing-Yao & Zhang, Bin & Zhang, Fang & Bansal, Prateek, 2025. "Coordinating demand response strategies for electric vehicles and second-life battery energy storage to optimize renewable energy absorption under demand and supply uncertainties," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    14. Heggarty, Thomas & Bourmaud, Jean-Yves & Girard, Robin & Kariniotakis, Georges, 2020. "Quantifying power system flexibility provision," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    15. Javier L'opez Prol & Wolf-Peter Schill, 2020. "The Economics of Variable Renewables and Electricity Storage," Papers 2012.15371, arXiv.org.
    16. Jack, M.W. & Suomalainen, K. & Dew, J.J.W. & Eyers, D., 2018. "A minimal simulation of the electricity demand of a domestic hot water cylinder for smart control," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 104-112.
    17. Cruz, Marco R.M. & Fitiwi, Desta Z. & Santos, Sérgio F. & Catalão, João P.S., 2018. "A comprehensive survey of flexibility options for supporting the low-carbon energy future," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 338-353.
    18. Blanco, Herib & Faaij, André, 2018. "A review at the role of storage in energy systems with a focus on Power to Gas and long-term storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1049-1086.
    19. Kreft, Markus & Brudermueller, Tobias & Fleisch, Elgar & Staake, Thorsten, 2024. "Predictability of electric vehicle charging: Explaining extensive user behavior-specific heterogeneity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 370(C).
    20. Staffell, Iain & Pfenninger, Stefan, 2018. "The increasing impact of weather on electricity supply and demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 65-78.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:333:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225027318. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.