Spatial dynamics of residential heat pump integration and its potential role in the energy transition of German municipalities

The transition to renewable energy is essential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in the heating sector, which relies on fossil fuels. This study examines the integration of residential heat pumps (HPs) in German municipalities and their role in the country’s energy transition. Using a spatially explicit model, the research analyzes local energy consumption, renewable power production, and HP suitability. Results highlight regional disparities in HP adoption potential and renewable power generation. Rural areas show higher proportional energy savings in residential heating, while urban centers offer greater absolute savings. However, increased electricity demand for HP operation presents challenges due to variable renewable generation. The study finds that HPs could reduce residential heating energy consumption by 55%, but electricity demand could rise by 100 TWh annually. Regions with high renewable energy production, like northern Germany, are better positioned to meet this demand, while urban areas remain dependent on grid electricity. Seasonal fluctuations in renewable energy complicate HP integration, emphasizing the need for enhanced grid infrastructure, energy storage, and demand-side management strategies. This research provides a framework for evaluating HP deployment at the municipal level, offering insights into energy transition dynamics and informing policy decisions for sustainable decarbonization of the heating sector.