IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v330y2025ics0360544225025551.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Navigating copper demand-supply dynamics for China's energy transition: Pathways to sustainable supply

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Binbin
  • Wang, Liang
  • Zhang, Ling
  • Wu, Huijun
  • Yuan, Zengwei

Abstract

It remains uncertain whether and how copper supply can meet the rising demand in the energy transition of China. This study forecasts China's copper metabolism during 2022–2060, with particular attention on transport and power sectors as key energy transition subsystems. Sustainable supply pathways are then explored. The findings indicate that copper demand is projected to increase from 14.3 Mt to 21.9–32.0 Mt in 2060. The combined share of the transport and power sectors is expected to account for 67.3 %–77.5 % of total copper demand and 62.9 %–73.8 % of total scrap, highlighting their pivotal role in reshaping copper usage and recycling efforts. Secondary copper is anticipated to become the primary supply source by as early as 2045. However, under current recycling rates and trade volumes, there would be a cumulative demand-supply gap of 75.9–314.3 Mt. To close this gap, the recycling rate must increase to 90 %. Developing substitution for copper is also promising.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Binbin & Wang, Liang & Zhang, Ling & Wu, Huijun & Yuan, Zengwei, 2025. "Navigating copper demand-supply dynamics for China's energy transition: Pathways to sustainable supply," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 330(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:330:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225025551
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136913
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544225025551
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2025.136913?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:330:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225025551. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.