A two-stage allocation framework for renewable energy quotas in China: integrating potential and efficiency

The effective allocation of renewable energy (RE) quotas is essential for advancing RE development and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This study presents a two-stage allocation framework integrating growth potential and efficiency, applied to China's provincial-level RE quota allocation. It defines incremental quotas for hydropower and non-hydropower across provinces while outlining utilization responsibilities under RE growth targets. In the first stage, RE growth potential is evaluated based on resource endowment, energy demand, development capacity, and transition responsibility, forming the foundation for the initial provincial allocation scheme. In the second stage, a zero-sum game data envelopment analysis model is employed to assess and optimize energy use efficiency, refining the initial allocations to achieve an optimal provincial distribution. Key findings include: (1) significant disparities in RE growth potential across Chinese provinces, with Guangdong and Sichuan showing higher potential, while Hainan and Tianjin demonstrate lower potential; (2) prioritizing RE increments for provinces with higher efficiency and growth potential enables a more effective attainment of RE growth targets; (3) RE increments follow a north-to-south increasing trend, with growth patterns dominated by hydropower or non-hydropower based on regional resources; and (4) combining clean energy transitions with energy consumption control effectively reduces carbon emissions. This framework supports decision-making for RE development and low-carbon energy transitions.