Influencing factors and energy-saving effects of China's trade-in of consumer goods: A case study of air conditioners based on questionnaire survey

In 2024, the Chinese government initiated a policy aiming to facilitate the trade-ins of consumer goods, with a particular emphasis on improving the energy efficiency of household appliances. Against this backdrop, large-scale questionnaire surveys were employed in this study to analyze the factors that influence Chinese residents' usage and purchase behaviors regarding air conditioners (ACs) and evaluate the energy-saving effects associated with the trade-in deal. The findings revealed that brand is the paramount consideration for residents purchasing ACs, with the majority willing-to-pay up to 10 % more for a relatively energy-efficient AC. Regarding AC usage, variations in temperature settings and operation duration led to considerable disparities in energy-saving effects across regions. Specifically, the trade-in of each grade 1 AC in the southeastern region was estimated to achieve an annual electricity saving of 43.5 kWh, compared to 11.5 kWh in the northeastern region. Moreover, a critical finding is that while the trade-in policy could theoretically lead to an annual electricity saving of 4.85 billion kWh for China, the rebound effect could reduce this figure to 790 million kWh. Therefore, in this study, policy implications for the ‘Upgrades and Trade-ins' policy are proposed to strengthen the country's energy conservation goals.