Options for further developments of fast reactors

The commercial use of breeder reactors has been delayed due to declining rates of growth of nuclear capacity and an increasing backlog of uranium and plutonium reserves. Breeders will remain non-competitive economically for the next few decades relative to gas, coal, and light water reactors. The earliest global depletion of low-cost fossil fuel reserves occurs well beyond the 21st century, but fossil-fuel use may be curtailed sooner to limit greenhouse gas emissions. The breeder represents the most assured and widely available long-term energy resource for many centuries. The policy problem is to establish a workable course and justification for near-term development prior to the era of economically viable breeders. The proposed rationales are: (1) Fast reactors can provide the means for keeping highly secure custody of weapons materials while deriving useful energy benefits. (2) They can provide the means for the secure safeguarding of the backlog of civilian reactor plutonium. (3) They provide an energy source without emissions of CO2 , NOx, or methane. (4) Continued interim development is prudent to ensure the options for highly reliable and safe breeder-reactor capacity when needed. The present worth of the future fuel savings is several times the expected costs. Ten criteria that can influence decision making on national goals and paths to be followed are proposed, and a basic multi-attribute evaluation model for a national decision process in described. A sample of typical inputs for five different national viewpoints is tabulated. Options for national and international strategies for long-term development are identified, covering a wide range of rates of expenditures. Burner reactors for power production and for highly secure sequestering of weapons plutonium appear to provide the most viable and important interim use and development path for fast reactors. A multinational pattern of development is expected to have political, economic, and security advantages, as well as a better technical basis compared with isolated developments in individual countries.