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The future of European onshore wind energy potential: Detailed distribution and simulation of advanced turbine designs

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  • Ryberg, David Severin
  • Caglayan, Dilara Gulcin
  • Schmitt, Sabrina
  • Linßen, Jochen
  • Stolten, Detlef
  • Robinius, Martin

Abstract

Considering the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, onshore wind energy is certain to play a major role in future energy systems. This topic has received significant attention from the research community, producing many estimations of Europe's onshore wind potential for capacity and generation. Despite this focus, previous estimates appear to have underpredicted both the amount of available future wind capacity as well as its performance. Foremost in this regard is the common use of contemporary, or at least near-future, turbine designs which are not fitting for a far-future context. In response to this, an improved, transparent, and fully reproducible work flow is presented here, and applied to determine a future-oriented onshore wind energy potential for Europe. Within a scenario of turbine cost and design in 2050, 13.4 TW of capacity is found to be available, allowing for 34.3 PWh of average generation per year. By sorting the explicitly-placed potential installation locations by their expected generation cost, national relationships between cost and performance versus installed capacity are found, and it is also seen that all countries possess some potential for onshore wind energy generation below 4 ct€ kWh-1. Furthermore, it is unlikely for these costs to exceed 6 ct€ kWh-1 in any future capacity scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryberg, David Severin & Caglayan, Dilara Gulcin & Schmitt, Sabrina & Linßen, Jochen & Stolten, Detlef & Robinius, Martin, 2019. "The future of European onshore wind energy potential: Detailed distribution and simulation of advanced turbine designs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 1222-1238.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:182:y:2019:i:c:p:1222-1238
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.06.052
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    1. Zhang, Heng & Hu, Xiao & Cheng, Haozhong & Zhang, Shenxi & Hong, Shaoyun & Gu, Qingfa, 2021. "Coordinated scheduling of generators and tie lines in multi-area power systems under wind energy uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
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    14. Chloi Syranidou & Jochen Linssen & Detlef Stolten & Martin Robinius, 2020. "Integration of Large-Scale Variable Renewable Energy Sources into the Future European Power System: On the Curtailment Challenge," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-23, October.
    15. Mats Kröger & Karsten Neuhoff & Jörn C. Richstein, 2022. "Discriminatory Auction Design for Renewable Energy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2013, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. McKenna, Russell & Weinand, Jann Michael & Mulalic, Ismir & Petrovic, Stefan & Mainzer, Kai & Preis, Tobias & Moat, Helen Susannah, 2020. "Improving renewable energy resource assessments by quantifying landscape beauty," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 43, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
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    18. Klie, Leo & Madlener, Reinhard, 2020. "Concentration Versus Diversification: A Spatial Deployment Approach to Improve the Economics of Wind Power," FCN Working Papers 2/2020, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised May 2021.
    19. Ortiz-Imedio, Rafael & Caglayan, Dilara Gulcin & Ortiz, Alfredo & Heinrichs, Heidi & Robinius, Martin & Stolten, Detlef & Ortiz, Inmaculada, 2021. "Power-to-Ships: Future electricity and hydrogen demands for shipping on the Atlantic coast of Europe in 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    20. Kies, Alexander & Schyska, Bruno U. & Bilousova, Mariia & El Sayed, Omar & Jurasz, Jakub & Stoecker, Horst, 2021. "Critical review of renewable generation datasets and their implications for European power system models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    21. Jann Michael Weinand & Russell McKenna & Heidi Heinrichs & Michael Roth & Detlef Stolten & Wolf Fichtner, 2021. "Exploring the trilemma of cost-efficient, equitable and publicly acceptable onshore wind expansion planning," Papers 2106.15198, arXiv.org.
    22. Muñoz Ortiz, Miguel & Kvalbein, Lisa & Hellemo, Lars, 2021. "Evaluation of open photovoltaic and wind production time series for Norwegian locations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    23. Benjamin Rösner & Sebastian Egli & Boris Thies & Tina Beyer & Doron Callies & Lukas Pauscher & Jörg Bendix, 2020. "Fog and Low Stratus Obstruction of Wind Lidar Observations in Germany—A Remote Sensing-Based Data Set for Wind Energy Planning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-13, July.
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    25. Kübra Tümay Ateş, 2023. "Estimation of Short-Term Power of Wind Turbines Using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Swarm Intelligence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-20, September.

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