Energy transitions in the Pacific, one island at a time: The case of Efate island, Vanuatu

Pacific Island Countries are highly dependent on imported fossil fuels, with detrimental effects on the security and affordability of their energy supply. Many have set ambitious 100 % renewable energy targets by 2030 or earlier as part of international climate change commitments. RE targets are typically top-down and not underpinned by robust techno-economic analyses. Consequently, most PICs are falling short of their commitments. This research focuses on the case of Vanuatu, an example of a remote Pacific Island economy, highly dependent on fossil fuels, with high electricity tariffs and unfulfilled renewable energy targets. The paper examines whether Vanuatu's most populated and energy-intensive island could reach the 100 % renewable energy goal cost-effectively and affordably. Different technology scenarios are optimised with HOMER. All scenarios deliver lower costs, higher shares of renewables, and lower emissions than the Base Case. A mix of solar PV, BESS and biomass generation delivers a fully renewable electricity system at a LCOE 60 % lower than the base case. Coconut oil-fuelled generators provide dispatchable power, aiding the affordability of the transition. The capital cost of this system is 76 % higher than the Base Case. Hence, access to finance will be key. Vanuatu relies heavily on donor finance for infrastructure, but capital requirements far exceed current energy sector aid levels. As aid funding becomes increasingly uncertain, private investment enabled by a conducive regulatory framework will be essential for the transition.