Global PV supply Chains: Costs and energy savings, GHG emissions reductions

Accelerating clean energy development is crucial in combating climate change, but rising domestic protectionism threatens to elevate the overall costs of climate action. Using experience curve methods, we made a projection of price, cumulative energy demand (CED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of solar PV modules from 2022 to 2050 under the IEA's stated policies scenario (STEPS) and the announced pledges scenario (APS). Furthermore, we examine the cost savings, energy savings, and GHG emissions reductions achieved through a globalized solar PV module supply chain compared to scenarios with increasing domestic manufacturing in five representative countries: China, the United States, Germany, Japan, and India. Our findings reveal significant cumulative cost savings of US$218 (194–245) billion, energy savings of 4.91 (4.35–5.53) EJp-eq, and GHG emissions reductions amounting to 261 (197–335) Mt CO2-eq in the STEPS, and cumulative cost savings of US$379 (337–425) billion, energy savings of 8.83 (7.83–9.93) EJp-eq, and GHG emissions reductions amounting to 475 (360–605) Mt CO2-eq in the APS. The findings clearly demonstrate the significant advantages of a globalized supply chain in PV module production. Coordinated policy reforms are essential to leverage these benefits and drive the transition towards a sustainable and carbon-free future.