Does climate change affect the economic adaptability of community “SGLS” systems?

Climate change reshapes the temporal profiles of residential electricity demand and distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation, which in turn alters the long-run economic adaptability of community-level Source-Grid-Load-Storage (SGLS) systems. This paper develops a climate-driven intertemporal capacity optimization framework for community SGLS systems, anchored in CMIP6 multi-scenario climate projections across shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Using counterfactual experiments and paired difference tests, we quantify the long-run impacts of climate change on supply-demand mismatch, system economic value (VOES), and carbon abatement performance, and identify the economic transmission channels of net climate impacts. Our results reveal significant spatial heterogeneity in capacity responses to long-term climate change: multi-year planning drives statistically significant PV expansion and revenue restructuring in climate-sensitive cities, and we further characterize the differentiated driving mechanisms of system responses across climatic zones. Counterfactual analysis shows that electricity pricing institutions shape capacity reallocation and VOES via the marginal trade-off between grid purchase substitution through self-consumption and surplus feed-in, creating identifiable heterogeneity in institutional exposure across regions. These findings provide quantitative evidence for climate-resilient community energy governance, and highlight that zone-specific strategies and flexibility-oriented tariff-policy mixes are critical to improving the efficiency of low-carbon transition and regional welfare equity.