Spread of supply risks in the trade network of critical metals for energy transition: A case study of manganese ore

The stability of critical metal supply chains is vital for the energy transition, but these chains face escalating risks from geopolitical tensions, resource concentration, and market volatility. This study investigates the propagation mechanisms of supply shocks within the global manganese ore trade network. We propose a Trade Supply Risk Propagation (TSRP) model that captures the heterogeneous resilience of nations by incorporating four key dimensions: resource dependence, economic strength, governance capacity, and network structural importance. Through comparative scenario analysis, we reveal how the choice between proactive and reactive export adjustments following a shock reshapes the paths and magnitude of global risk propagation. The results show that: (1) High-risk propagation sources, characterized by either high resource dependence or network centrality, can trigger widespread cascading failures, with avalanche rates exceeding 80%; (2) The composite resilience of importing countries, derived from the four dimensions, critically determines the scale and velocity of risk diffusion; (3) Comparing proactive and reactive export adjustments from an inventory management perspective reveals that prioritizing short-term domestic security may inadvertently accelerate global risk propagation and elevate total trade losses. Based on the results, we recommend that countries diversify import sources and adopt proactive and rational adjustment to trade volumes in line with the actual intensity of supply shocks, balancing the need to safeguard domestic demand while avoiding trade protectionism.