Do energy transition goals encounter conflicts under geopolitical risk? Evidence of nonlinearity

Geopolitical risk has emerged as a critical factor reshaping global energy development, but its role in driving or hindering modern energy transitions remains uncertain. Our analysis of 39 economies reveals heterogeneous nonlinear relationships between geopolitical risk and four key energy transition goals (Sustainable Development Goal 7). Specifically, geopolitical risk exerts an inverted U-shaped impact on renewable energy consumption and energy efficiency, whereas it has a U-shaped impact on access to electricity and clean cooking, highlighting the specific conflicts between just and low-carbon energy transition in different states of geopolitical risk. The transmission mechanism further indicates that geopolitical risk impacts the energy transition through fluctuations in energy security levels, revealing the emergence of the “energy trilemma.” In addition, the moderating effects examine the diverse interventions that can reshape the nonlinear relationships, which emphasize the need for adaptive policy designs. These findings suggest that the government should identify priorities among the trade-offs within energy systems and design tailored strategies, including green innovation, resource management, targeted spending, and flexible environmental regulations, to either mitigate the contradictions between energy transition goals or jointly navigate these objectives amid geopolitical volatility.