Does Sci-Tech Finance Integration Policy facilitate effective dual control of carbon emissions? A quasi-natural experiment from China

Amid global efforts toward sustainable economic growth and enhanced environmental governance, Sci-Tech Finance Integration Policy—defined as the deep integration of science and technology with finance through coordinated policy mechanisms—emerges as a promising pathway for carbon emission control but empirical estimation of these synergetic policy is limited. Utilizing panel data encompassing 274 Chinese cities spanning 2005–2022, this study employs a staggered Difference-in-Differences model to comprehensively examine the impact of the “Pilot Program for Promoting the Integration of Science-Technology and Finance” on both total carbon emissions and intensity. Findings show that this policy significantly diminishes total carbon emissions and intensity in pilot regions, with particularly pronounced improvements in emission intensity reduction. Further tests confirm that this policy can effectively achieve coordinated governance of total carbon emissions and intensity. The policy affects carbon emissions through scale, innovation, and structural channels, with the combined emission reduction benefits from innovation effects and structural effects being sufficient to offset scale effects. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the policy demonstrates stronger effects on carbon emission intensity improvement in cities with low innovation investment, greater impact on total emission reduction in resource-dependent cities, and significant dual reductions in cities with strong low-carbon industrial foundations and in economically larger cities. Moreover, the phased implementation analysis highlights distinct first-mover advantages, with the initial 2011 pilots significantly outperforming the 2016 batch. This study offers crucial evidence-based support to optimize Sci-Tech Finance Integration Policy systems while advancing “dual carbon” objective achievement.