Decision-making on the timing of CCS technology adoption in coal power enterprises under multiple uncertainties

Promoting low-carbon technology retrofits in coal-fired power enterprises has become an inevitable choice to reconcile energy security with emission reduction targets. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), recognized as the most promising large-scale pathway for deep decarbonization, continues to advance slowly due to high costs, carbon price volatility, and policy fluctuations. Against this backdrop, this study incorporates multiple layers of uncertainty—including policy, market, technology, and economic factors—into a unified analytical framework, and develops a decision-making model for CCS adoption by coal-fired power enterprises, followed by empirical analysis. The results indicate that: (1) under ±20% parameter perturbations, fluctuations in adoption timing remain below 20%, demonstrating strong robustness of the model; (2) the factors influencing adoption timing rank in order of importance as subsidy intensity, construction cost, carbon price, and carbon capture rate, with multi-factor interactions shaping three distinct phases of “wait-and-see–equilibrium–acceleration.” Notably, the combination of high carbon prices and generous subsidies triggers a stepwise shift toward early adoption; (3) expansion in installed capacity leads adoption timing to follow a trajectory of “initially stable–then steeply rising–and eventually stabilizing,” while improvements in generation efficiency advance adoption timing in a near-linear manner. In contrast, stronger external shocks to power generation delay adoption timing and induce an inflection point when the share of coal power reaches 30%–40%. The findings provide decision-making references for coal-fired power enterprises in optimizing strategies for the timing of low-carbon technology adoption, and for governments in formulating incentive-compatible policy frameworks to accelerate low-carbon retrofits.