Unraveling the determinants of air pollutant emissions: A production-theoretical decomposition analysis with endogenous direction vectors

Reducing air pollutant emissions constitutes a pressing global imperative for sustainable economic development. As efficiency advancements and technological innovations have been recognized as pivotal determinants of emission dynamics, identifying the contributions to changes in air pollutant emissions from a technology perspective is fundamental to pollution control management. To properly assess the driving forces of efficiency and technology related determinants, we propose an innovative production decomposition analysis (PDA) framework. The approach strategically portrays the technology heterogeneity among production entities by incorporating the meta-frontier concept, and further characterizes the heterogenous improving pathways for environmental performance through endogenous direction vectors, which therefore provides a systematic architecture for better understanding the roles of technical determinants. We apply this meta-frontier PDA method to analyze the driving forces behind industrial SO2 and NOx emissions variations across 101 key environmental protection cities in China. Empirical results show that potential emission ratio is the predominant contributing factor to emissions reductions, while the economic scale effect is the principal contributor to emissions increases. The effects of potential energy intensity, environmental performance, and technology gap demonstrate spatiotemporal heterogeneity across urban systems and pollutant categories.