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Spatial and socioeconomic factors of distributed photovoltaic generation in Minas Gerais

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  • Salgueiro, Guilherme Perobelli
  • Perobelli, Fernando Salgueiro
  • Domingues, Edson Paulo
  • Valério, Victor Eduardo de Melo

Abstract

This article analyzes the determinants and spatial diffusion of residential distributed photovoltaic (PV) adoption in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Comprising 853 municipalities with deep socioeconomic disparities, the state serves as a unique case study for technology diffusion. The hypothesis of spatial randomness for the density of PV installations (N/Km2) was tested and rejected using Moran's I, revealing distinct clusters of high and low adoption. Employing a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to capture both direct and spillover effects, the results demonstrate that socioeconomic factors, specifically average wage, tertiary education, and urbanization are the primary drivers of diffusion. Crucially, the study identifies an ‘efficiency gap’ in the northern region of the state: while possessing the highest solar irradiation resources, these municipalities exhibit low adoption rates due to structural socioeconomic barriers, indicating that physical potential is a necessary but insufficient condition for diffusion. These findings suggest that public policies must go beyond technical incentives to address financial and educational constraints to promote equitable energy transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Salgueiro, Guilherme Perobelli & Perobelli, Fernando Salgueiro & Domingues, Edson Paulo & Valério, Victor Eduardo de Melo, 2026. "Spatial and socioeconomic factors of distributed photovoltaic generation in Minas Gerais," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:154:y:2026:i:c:s014098832500951x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109121
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