IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v153y2026ics0140988325009028.html

Trading characteristics of emissions trading scheme and carbon emission reduction efficiency: Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Jiangyuan
  • Ding, Tao
  • Tan, Ruipeng
  • Liang, Liang

Abstract

Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) has been widely implemented as a key measure to address climate challenges, yet its efficiency in reducing carbon emissions (CEs) still faces numerous challenges. To promote the development of the global carbon market and enhance CEs reduction efficiency, this study examines the impact of the trading characteristics of China's ETS on its CEs reduction efficiency using sample data from Chinese prefecture-level cities between 2007 and 2019. The baseline regression results indicate that the carbon reduction effect of ETS is associated with trading scale: each million tons of carbon trading volume (CTV) reduces CEs by an average of 1.69 million tons, and each million yuan of carbon trading turnover (CTT) reduces CEs by an average of 0.103 million tons. These findings remain robust across various tests. Mechanism analysis reveals that the ETS drives corporate CEs reduction by increasing liquidity pressure on enterprises and raising their awareness of emission reduction. Further analysis of trading characteristics shows that increased volatility or illiquidity in carbon trading diminishes the carbon reduction effect per unit of CTV and CTT. Additionally, this study identifies a non-trading carbon reduction effect of ETS, with the deterrence effect being a significant source. Further analysis reveals that the CEs reduction effect of CTV and CTT steadily rises over time, with a spillover effect and a hysteresis effect lasting one year. Finally, based on the findings, this study proposes several recommendations to enhance the CEs reduction efficiency of ETS.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Jiangyuan & Ding, Tao & Tan, Ruipeng & Liang, Liang, 2026. "Trading characteristics of emissions trading scheme and carbon emission reduction efficiency: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:153:y:2026:i:c:s0140988325009028
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109072
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988325009028
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109072?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ding, Haoyuan & Lin, Shu & Wu, Shujie & Ye, Haichun, 2024. "Financial spillovers of foreign direct investment: Evidence from China," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    2. Yin, Jianhua & Zheng, Mingzheng & Chen, Jian, 2015. "The effects of environmental regulation and technical progress on CO2 Kuznets curve: An evidence from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 97-108.
    3. Christian Peukert & Imke Reimers, 2022. "Digitization, Prediction, and Market Efficiency: Evidence from Book Publishing Deals," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(9), pages 6907-6924, September.
    4. Qianqian Guo & Zhifang Su & Chaoshin Chiao, 2022. "Carbon emissions trading policy, carbon finance, and carbon emissions reduction: evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1445-1480, August.
    5. Zerbib, Olivier David, 2019. "The effect of pro-environmental preferences on bond prices: Evidence from green bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 39-60.
    6. Cong, Ren & Lo, Alex Y., 2017. "Emission trading and carbon market performance in Shenzhen, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 414-425.
    7. Chen Chen & Sudipto Dasgupta & Thanh D. Huynh & Ying Xia, 2023. "Product Market Competition and Corporate Relocations: Evidence from the Supply Chain," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(9), pages 5147-5173, September.
    8. Zhang, Wei & Li, Jing & Li, Guoxiang & Guo, Shucen, 2020. "Emission reduction effect and carbon market efficiency of carbon emissions trading policy in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    9. Kirill Borusyak & Xavier Jaravel & Jann Spiess, 2024. "Revisiting Event-Study Designs: Robust and Efficient Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(6), pages 3253-3285.
    10. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    11. James B. Bushnell & Howard Chong & Erin T. Mansur, 2013. "Profiting from Regulation: Evidence from the European Carbon Market," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 78-106, November.
    12. James Heckman, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    13. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Isaac Sorkin & Henry Swift, 2020. "Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2586-2624, August.
    14. Liu, Xiaoding, 2016. "Corruption culture and corporate misconduct," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 307-327.
    15. Zhao, Xiaomeng & Liu, Chuanjiang & Sun, Chuanwang & Yang, Mian, 2020. "Does stringent environmental regulation lead to a carbon haven effect? Evidence from carbon-intensive industries in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    16. Zhikai Zhang & Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang & Qunwei Wang, 2024. "The predictability of carbon futures volatility: New evidence from the spillovers of fossil energy futures returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 557-584, April.
    17. Cheng He & O. Cem Ozturk & Chris Gu & Pradeep K. Chintagunta, 2023. "Consumer Tax Credits for EVs: Some Quasi-Experimental Evidence on Consumer Demand, Product Substitution, and Carbon Emissions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7759-7783, December.
    18. Emily Oster, 2019. "Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 187-204, April.
    19. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    20. Chen, Zhao & Kahn, Matthew E. & Liu, Yu & Wang, Zhi, 2018. "The consequences of spatially differentiated water pollution regulation in China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 468-485.
    21. Arnold Barnett, 1981. "The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: A Test of Some Recent Studies," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 29(2), pages 346-370, April.
    22. Kim, Jinhwan & Valentine, Kristen, 2021. "The innovation consequences of mandatory patent disclosures," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2).
    23. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    24. Wang, Xiao-Qing & Su, Chi-Wei & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Li, Hao & Nicoleta-Claudia, Moldovan, 2022. "Is China's carbon trading market efficient? Evidence from emissions trading scheme pilots," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    25. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2020. "The impacts of technological gap and scale economy on the low-carbon development of China's industries: An extended decomposition analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    26. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle.
    27. Yang, Shengyi, 2023. "Carbon emission trading policy and firm's environmental investment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    28. Doruk Cengiz & Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner & Ben Zipperer, 2019. "The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1405-1454.
    29. Wang, Maria & Kuusi, Tero, 2024. "Trade flows, carbon leakage, and the EU Emissions Trading System," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    30. R. H. Coase, 2013. "The Problem of Social Cost," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(4), pages 837-877.
    31. Su, Zhi & Lyu, Tongtong & Yin, Libo, 2022. "Are conditional illiquidity risks priced in China? A cross-sectional test," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    32. Weng, Zhixiong & Liu, Tingting & Wu, Yufeng & Cheng, Cuiyun, 2022. "Air quality improvement effect and future contributions of carbon trading pilot programs in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    33. Itzhak Ben-David & Yeejin Jang & Stefanie Kleimeier & Michael Viehs, 2021. "Exporting pollution: where do multinational firms emit CO2? [Effects of air quality regulations on polluting industries]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 36(107), pages 377-437.
    34. Kanne, Stefan & Korn, Olaf & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese, 2023. "Stock illiquidity and option returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    35. Anders Akerman & Edwin Leuven & Magne Mogstad, 2022. "Information Frictions, Internet, and the Relationship between Distance and Trade," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 133-163, January.
    36. Liu, Jing-Yue & Zhang, Yue-Jun, 2021. "Has carbon emissions trading system promoted non-fossil energy development in China?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    37. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10174 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Richard Akresh & Daniel Halim & Marieke Kleemans, 2023. "Long-Term and Intergenerational Effects of Education: Evidence from School Construction in Indonesia," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(650), pages 582-612.
    39. Ding, Tao & Li, Jiangyuan & Shi, Xing & Li, Xuhui & Chen, Ya, 2023. "Is artificial intelligence associated with carbon emissions reduction? Case of China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    40. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Hou, Kewei & Kim, Sehoon, 2022. "Real effects of climate policy: Financial constraints and spillovers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 668-696.
    41. Wang, Jingjuan & Xia, Weili, 2022. "Public attention and investment efficiency: Incentive effect or deterrent effect? Analysis on heterogeneous bilateral stochastic frontier model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    42. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2019. "Impacts of carbon price level in carbon emission trading market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 157-170.
    43. Kaviani, Mahsa S. & Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Maleki, Hosein & Savor, Pavel, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and corporate credit spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 838-865.
    44. Jennie Bai & Hong Ru, 2024. "Carbon Emissions Trading and Environmental Protection: International Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(7), pages 4593-4603, July.
    45. Yiming Cao & Shuo Chen, 2022. "Rebel on the Canal: Disrupted Trade Access and Social Conflict in China, 1650–1911," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1555-1590, May.
    46. Zabinski, Zenon & Black, Bernard S., 2022. "The deterrent effect of tort law: Evidence from medical malpractice reform," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    47. Ni, Jian & Cao, Xiyang & Zhou, Wei & Li, Jiali, 2023. "Customer concentration and financing constraints," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu, Yantuan & Zhang, Ning, 2025. "Towards low-carbon development through integration of technology and finance: Quasi-experimental evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Li, Peiyu & Zhou, Hanmei & Liu, Xinzhi & Li, Liping, 2026. "Does public data openness reduce boundary pollution? Evidence from interprovincial neighboring cities in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    3. Wang, Xiaoxi & Xu, Meng & Chen, Kevin, 2025. "Internalizing externalities through ecological compensation: Evidence from trans-boundary water pollution in China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Arne Henningsen & Guy Low & David Wuepper & Tobias Dalhaus & Hugo Storm & Dagim Belay & Stefan Hirsch, 2026. "Estimating Causal Effects With Observational Data: Guidelines for Agricultural and Applied Economists," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(2), pages 356-382, June.
    5. Liang, Wenjing & Yu, Weihua & Yao, Xin, 2025. "Does the development of the service outsourcing industry enhance green product exports? Quasi-natural experimental evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    6. Zhang, Hao & Song, Yan & Zhang, Ming & Duan, Ye & Zhao, Danning, 2025. "Ecological environmental impact assessment of photovoltaic and "photovoltaic +" development in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    7. Zhu, Junjie & Guo, Hongfeng, 2025. "Does the development of high-speed rail benefit carbon emissions reduction?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    8. Tatsuru Kikuchi, 2025. "Treatment Effects with Correlated Spillovers: Bridging Discrete and Continuous Methods," Papers 2512.12653, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    9. Yan, Xiaolei & He, Taiyi, 2024. "Wish fulfilment or wishful thinking? – Assessing the outcomes of China's pilot carbon emissions trading scheme on green economy efficiency in China's cities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    10. Stephen Karolyi & Thomas Ruchti & Phong Truong, 2025. "Number Processing Constraints and Earnings News," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(3), pages 2413-2442, March.
    11. Wang, Yewen & Tang, Jiaxuan & Li, Cheng, 2025. "Registration reform and stock mispricing: Causal inference based on double machine learning," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB).
    12. Wang, Shiqi & Wang, Yongqiao, 2026. "The impact of green bond issuances on green mergers and acquisitions of peer firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    13. Qian, Yuan, 2025. "Supply chain spillover effects of corporate voluntary green behavior: A quasi-natural experiment from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    14. Bradford, Ashley C. & Fu, Wei & You, Shijun, 2024. "The devastating dance between opioid and housing crises: Evidence from OxyContin reformulation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    15. Zhao, Xiaolei, 2025. "Carbon pricing policies trade-offs between environment and economics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 401(PC).
    16. Brehm, Johannes & Pestel, Nico & Schaffner, Sandra & Schmitz, Laura, 2025. "From Low Emission Zone to academic track: Environmental policy effects on educational achievement in elementary school," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    17. Yan, Wenying & Chen, Yusheng & Wang, Yanmei, 2025. "Efficiency improvement effect of clean energy transformation —A quasi-natural experiment based on China's clean heating policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    18. Burton, Anne M. & Churchill, Brandyn F., 2025. "Supply-side opioid restrictions and the retail pharmacy market," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    19. Li, Pei & Liu, Kaihao & Lu, Yi & Peng, Lu, 2025. "Organizing regulatory structure and local air quality: Evidence from the environmental vertical management reform in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 139-164.
    20. Chen, Jidong & Shi, Xinzheng & Zhang, Ming-ang & Zhang, Sihan, 2024. "Centralization of environmental administration and air pollution: Evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:153:y:2026:i:c:s0140988325009028. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.