Risk-averse transition pathway for China's power system facing high variable renewable energy penetration

The high penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) poses significant challenges to power system security, due to exacerbated weather vulnerability. To address these risks, a diversified portfolio of flexible options must be deployed, necessitating a multi-technology optimization approach. This study integrates risk aversion into the capacity expansion and grid connection model using the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) method. Optimal transition pathways for China's power systems are developed under risk-free (RF), risk-neutral (RN) and risk-averse (RA) scenarios. It's revealed that while VRE penetration will continue to rise nationally, resistance intensifies as regional installed capacity approaches its technical ceiling, exacerbating regional heterogeneity, particularly under RA conditions. Effective grid support and operation dispatch are critical for managing source-load uncertainties. A strategic trade-off between risk aversion (ex-ante costs) and risk loss (ex-post costs) is made to achieve an economically optimal transition. Based on these insights, we suggest prioritizing the assessment of VRE-associated risks and strengthening risk management throughout the entire power system transition process.