Decarbonising the UK pulp, paper and printing sector: Balancing sustainability and global competitiveness through insights from LMDI and MRIO analysis

The United Kingdom's pulp, paper, and printing sector (UKPPP) contributes ∼6 % of the nation's industrial CO2 emissions. While these emissions have declined since 2000, mainly because roughly half its paper mills closed due to global competitiveness challenges, other factors influencing emission dynamics (e.g., carbon intensity, energy intensity, fossil fuel dependency, economic structure, and activities) remain quantitatively unevaluated in comparison to other top global PPP countries (TGPPP). Additionally, the UKPPP relies on imports from TGPPP. Yet, a comprehensive modelling of the ecological CO2 emission exchanges and a comparison of sectoral production structures and emission dynamics between these entities have not been conducted. This analytical gap hinders the gauging of the effectiveness of decarbonisation plans, impacting wider UK climate policy. Consequently, this paper employs a two-step, top-down modelling approach, utilising logarithmic mean divisia index and environmentally-extended multi-region input-output frameworks to examine the sectoral emission driving factors between 2000 and 2019. The analysis reveals that across the aggregate 20-year period, efficiency gains from improved energy intensity contributed minimally to emission mitigation, despite overall improvements in carbon intensity and reduced fossil fuel dependency, primarily induced by an increased proportion of solid biomass and biogas. Importantly, despite the UKPPP's improved carbon intensity, CO2 emissions are effectively leaking to other TGPPP, with the exception of Russia, where the UK is a net exporter of emissions, highlighting a critical need to rethink current bilateral trading mechanisms. Macro-level sector-specific strategies encompassing new circular business models, supply-chain re-configurations, and consumption-based carbon budgeting to both decarbonise the UKPPP and keep it globally competitive are proposed.