Promotion or inhibition? Unveiling the heterogeneous effects and mechanism of the digital economy on carbon emission efficiency

The digital economy (DE) performs the role of a crucial catalyst driving progress toward the “dual carbon” goals. Utilizing panel data from 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China between 2011 and 2022, this study adopts the fixed-effects model to investigate its overall effect, mechanism pathways, as well as heterogeneous effects on carbon emission efficiency (CEE). The following are the main findings: (1) Both DE and CEE have exhibited continuous growth between 2011 and 2022, displaying a clear geographical pattern with “the east being higher and the west lower”; notably, the average DE index rose from 0.061 to 0.187, representing nearly a threefold rise and a mean yearly increase of 10.81 %. (2) The enhancement of CEE is positively influenced by DE, with each 1 % increase in DE corresponding to an average gain of 0.0003 units in CEE. (3) The analysis of heterogeneity indicates that this effect is more potent in areas with more advanced industrial structures. Meanwhile, DE promotes CEE across southeastern and northwestern areas, with the southeastern experiencing particularly pronounced effects. (4) DE improves CEE through economic agglomeration, energy structure optimization, and energy efficiency improvement. (5) A further examination of the sub-indicators, including digital infrastructure, digital industry growth, digital integration application, and digital innovation environment, shows that each significantly enhances CEE. Practical and effective pathways to advancing the synergy between the achievement of the “dual carbon” goals and the development of DE are offered by the above results.