IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v149y2025ics0140988325005523.html

Elderly population migration and urban energy consumption: Voluntary relocation or forced displacement?

Author

Listed:
  • Lee, Chien-Chiang
  • Li, Jiangnan
  • Xia, Ziqian
  • Xie, Linrui

Abstract

The Seventh National Census shows that the migrant population reached 376 million in 2020, while those living away from their households totaled 493 million. Against the backdrop of an accelerating aging process, the migration of the elderly, driven by various factors, has garnered significant attention. This growing mobile group is influencing energy consumption (EC) in various regions. Based on data from China's prefecture-level cities, this study explores how the migration of the elderly population affects EC. The findings indicate that elderly migration results in both aging and migration effects, which respectively demonstrate that elderly populations' demand for health and medical services, as well as their reliance on electricity and transportation, significantly contribute to increased EC. By focusing on three scenarios, this study tests the moderating effects of factors that drive the elderly population migration. The results show that family relocation, intergenerational care, and healthcare all exert negative moderating effects. In the heterogeneity analysis, we find that rural migrants, female populations, and those born in peaceful times display a stronger tendency towards EC. The Exponential Smoothing (ETS) model predicts continued growth in EC, and quantile regression confirms that regions with higher EC see greater contributions from migrants. This study highlights the elderly migrant population and applies demographic theory to the analysis of EC, offering new research approaches and perspectives for EC management and policy development.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Chien-Chiang & Li, Jiangnan & Xia, Ziqian & Xie, Linrui, 2025. "Elderly population migration and urban energy consumption: Voluntary relocation or forced displacement?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:149:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325005523
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108725
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988325005523
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108725?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luo, Kang & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zeng, Mingli & Hu, Weihui, 2024. "How does the development of digital economy in central cities promote the coordinated development of regions? Evidence from 19 urban agglomerations in China," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    2. Jeong, Jun Woo & In Lee, Dong & Woo, Seungchul & Lim, Yunsung & Lee, Kihyung, 2024. "Analysis of energy consumption efficiency and emissions according to urban driving of hybrid electric vehicles in Korea," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 371(C).
    3. Ren, Xiaohang & Lu, Qian & Gozgor, Giray & Fu, Haiqin, 2025. "Natural gas and the battle of carbon emissions: Interpreting the spatial effects of provincial carbon emissions in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    4. Tonn, Bruce & Eisenberg, Joel, 2007. "The aging US population and residential energy demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 743-745, January.
    5. Dustmann, Christian & Okatenko, Anna, 2014. "Out-migration, wealth constraints, and the quality of local amenities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 52-63.
    6. Pritularga, Kandrika F. & Svetunkov, Ivan & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2023. "Shrinkage estimator for exponential smoothing models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1351-1365.
    7. Ren, Xiaohang & Hong, Keyi & Tao, Lizhu, 2025. "Driving a green future: Spatial econometric analysis of climate finance aid in renewable energy transition in developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 929-949.
    8. Wang, Lili & Liang, Jian & Wang, Beibei, 2024. "Population aging and sustainable economic development: An analysis based on the role of green finance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    9. Elisa Alén & Nieves Losada & Trinidad Domínguez, 2016. "The Impact of Ageing on the Tourism Industry: An Approach to the Senior Tourist Profile," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 303-322, May.
    10. Hidalgo-Aréstegui, Alessandra & Porter, Catherine & Sánchez, Alan & Singhal, Saurabh, 2025. "The long shadow of conflict on human capital: Intergenerational evidence from Peru," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    11. Marcos D. Chamon & Eswar S. Prasad, 2010. "Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 93-130, January.
    12. Chen, Xing-ni & Xu, Bin & Fei, Yue & Gan, Wen-tao & Pei, Gang, 2023. "Parameter optimization of phase change material and the combination of phase change material and cool paint according to corresponding energy consumption characteristics under various climates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    13. Wang, Renhe & Wang, Tong & Qian, Zhiyong & Hu, Shulan, 2023. "A Bayesian estimation approach of random switching exponential smoothing with application to credit forecast," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    14. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Hu, Linlin & Liu, Yuanli & Mahal, Ajay & Yip, Winnie, 2010. "The contribution of population health and demographic change to economic growth in China and India," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 17-33, March.
    15. Ren, Xiaohang & Yang, Wanping & Jin, Yi, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and renewable energy consumption: Evidence from a spatial convergence perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    16. Christopher D. Carroll, 1997. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(1), pages 1-55.
    17. Amores, Antonio F. & Maier, Sofia & Ricci, Mattia, 2023. "Taxing household energy consumption in the EU: The tax burden and its redistributive effect," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    18. Hübner, Wiebke & Phillimore, Jenny & Bradby, Hannah & Brand, Tilman, 2023. "Assessing the contribution of migration related policies to equity in access to healthcare in European countries. A multilevel analysis," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    19. Wang, Zhibao & Wei, Lijie & Zhang, Xiaoping & Qi, Guangzhi, 2023. "Impact of demographic age structure on energy consumption structure: Evidence from population aging in mainland China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    20. Wang, Xiong & Hong, Keyi & Ren, Xiaohang & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2024. "Can green finance act as a catalyst to renewable energy deployment? Evidence from China using a spatial econometric approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    21. Yahya, Farzan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2025. "Unveiling the multifaceted role of climate readiness in stabilizing renewables integration: Evidence of energy transition dynamics from a multi-theoretical perspective," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    22. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zhao, Ya-Nan, 2023. "Heterogeneity analysis of factors influencing CO2 emissions: The role of human capital, urbanization, and FDI," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    23. Bardazzi, Rossella & Pazienza, Maria Grazia, 2017. "Switch off the light, please! Energy use, aging population and consumption habits," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 161-171.
    24. Doh Dinga, Christian & Wen, Zongguo, 2021. "Many-objective optimization of energy conservation and emission reduction in China’s cement industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    25. Smyl, Slawek & Bergmeir, Christoph & Dokumentov, Alexander & Long, Xueying & Wibowo, Erwin & Schmidt, Daniel, 2025. "Local and global trend Bayesian exponential smoothing models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 111-127.
    26. Xu, Juan & Chen, Yu & Yang, Nan & Shao, Shuai, 2025. "The impact of artificial intelligence on the energy transition: evidence from Chinese cities," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    27. Yawale, Satish Kumar & Hanaoka, Tatsuya & Kapshe, Manmohan, 2021. "Development of energy balance table for rural and urban households and evaluation of energy consumption in Indian states," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    28. Ma, Shuang & Li, Xuan & Wu, Xi, 2024. "Minimum wage and internal labor migration: Evidence from China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    29. Ran Abramitzky & Leah Platt Boustan & Katherine Eriksson, 2014. "A Nation of Immigrants: Assimilation and Economic Outcomes in the Age of Mass Migration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(3), pages 467-506.
    30. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Ho, Shan-Ju & Wu, Ting-Pin, 2025. "Corrigendum to “The impact of natural disaster on energy consumption: International evidence” [Energy Economics Volume 97, May 2021, 105021]," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    31. Shi, Zhengyu & Wu, Libo & Zhou, Yang, 2023. "Predicting household energy consumption in an aging society," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    32. Mwesigye, Francis & Matsumoto, Tomoya, 2016. "The Effect of Population Pressure and Internal Migration on Land Conflicts: Implications for Agricultural Productivity in Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 25-39.
    33. Borozan, Djula, 2018. "Regional-level household energy consumption determinants: The european perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 347-355.
    34. Shinwari, Riazullah & Wang, Yangjie & Gozgor, Giray & Mousavi, Mahdi, 2024. "Does FDI affect energy consumption in the belt and road initiative economies? The role of green technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    35. Wei, Huaying & Chen, Min & Xiao, Zhouyan & Sun, Honghao, 2025. "Population mobility, innovation, and urban low-carbon development: Evidence from heterogeneous skill mobility in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    36. Chen, Na & Yang, Huan, 2024. "From rural to urban: Clan, urbanization and trust," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    37. Biying Yu & Yi-Ming Wei & Kei Gomi & Yuzuru Matsuoka, 2022. "Author Correction: Future scenarios for energy consumption and carbon emissions due to demographic transitions in Chinese households," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(6), pages 560-560, June.
    38. Schultheiss, Tobias & Pfister, Curdin & Gnehm, Ann-Sophie & Backes-Gellner, Uschi, 2023. "Education expansion and high-skill job opportunities for workers: Does a rising tide lift all boats?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    39. Zhou, Fengxiu & Chen, Ming & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2025. "Impact of digital climate governance on carbon neutrality in China: A framework for carbon technological progress," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    40. Rayamajhee, Veeshan & Paudel, Jayash, 2024. "The social behavior of immigrants during natural disasters: Lessons from the United States," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 614-633.
    41. McDonald, Garry W. & Forgie, Vicky E. & MacGregor, Catherine, 2006. "Treading lightly: Ecofootprints of New Zealand's ageing population," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 424-439, March.
    42. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zou, Jinyang & Chen, Pei-Fen, 2025. "The impact of artificial intelligence on the energy consumption of corporations: The role of human capital," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    43. Zhang, Huafeng, 2010. "The Hukou system's constraints on migrant workers' job mobility in Chinese cities," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 51-64, March.
    44. Begum, Rawshan Ara & Sohag, Kazi & Abdullah, Sharifah Mastura Syed & Jaafar, Mokhtar, 2015. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic and population growth in Malaysia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 594-601.
    45. Basso, Franco & Feijoo, Felipe & Pezoa, Raúl & Varas, Mauricio & Vidal, Brian, 2024. "The impact of electromobility in public transport: An estimation of energy consumption using disaggregated data in Santiago, Chile," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    46. Degirmenci, Tunahan & Yavuz, Hakan, 2024. "Environmental taxes, R&D expenditures and renewable energy consumption in EU countries: Are fiscal instruments effective in the expansion of clean energy?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    47. Priya, Pragati & Sharma, Chandan & Jha, Chandan Kumar, 2025. "Asymmetry in the inequality of opportunity in energy consumption across gender, caste, and religion in India," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    48. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Yan, Jingyang & Wang, Fuhao, 2024. "Impact of population aging on food security in the context of artificial intelligence: Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    49. Lopreite, Milena & Zhu, Zhen, 2020. "The effects of ageing population on health expenditure and economic growth in China: A Bayesian-VAR approach," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    50. Balezentis, Tomas, 2020. "Shrinking ageing population and other drivers of energy consumption and CO2 emission in the residential sector: A case from Eastern Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Tingting & Lu, Hongwei & Li, Jinkai & Chen, Jueying & Hong, Yu & Liu, Heguang, 2025. "Population ageing and clean energy transition: Evidence from rural China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).
    2. Fan, Jianshuang & Zhou, Lin & Zhang, Yan & Shao, Shuai & Ma, Miao, 2021. "How does population aging affect household carbon emissions? Evidence from Chinese urban and rural areas," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Zhu, Penghu & Lin, Boqiang, 2022. "Do the elderly consume more energy? Evidence from the retirement policy in urban China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    4. Ren, Xiaohang & Zhang, Ziqi & Palma, Alessia, 2025. "Energy efficiency trends in developing countries: Are we seeing convergence or polarization?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    5. Qin, Meng & Shao, Xuefeng & Zhu, Yujie & Lin, Cheng-To, 2025. "Harnessing artificial intelligence for environmental protection: Smart air quality management under oil price fluctuations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Yin, Zhichao & Yan, Yu & Chen, Xirong & Liu, Taixing, 2022. "Earthquake and household energy consumption – Evidence from the Wenchuan earthquake in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    7. Wang, Xueyang & Liu, Wenling & Zhu, Yulin & Xiao, Yuedong & Lv, Yiqun, 2026. "The hidden carbon costs of aging: How household dependency burden shapes emissions in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    8. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Yan, Jingyang & Xuan, Chengnan, 2025. "Blessing or curse? The effect of population aging on renewable energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
    9. Su, Min & Wang, Qiang & Li, Rongrong & Wang, Lili, 2022. "Per capita renewable energy consumption in 116 countries: The effects of urbanization, industrialization, GDP, aging, and trade openness," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PB).
    10. Ren, Xiaohang & Lu, Qian & Liu, Jianmei, 2025. "Impact of climate vulnerability on innovation: Spatial analysis and trade regulation perspectives," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(PB).
    11. Lei, Mingyu & Cai, Wenjia & Liu, Wenling & Wang, Can, 2022. "The heterogeneity in energy consumption patterns and home appliance purchasing preferences across urban households in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    12. Yan, Youpei & Paudel, Jayash, 2025. "Natural Disasters and Land Use Dynamics: Evidence from Earthquake-Induced Deforestation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    13. Shi, Zhengyu & Wu, Libo & Zhou, Yang, 2023. "Predicting household energy consumption in an aging society," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    14. Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 2010. "Consumption and Saving: Models of Intertemporal Allocation and Their Implications for Public Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 693-751, September.
    15. Khan, Zeeshan & Malik, Muhammad Yousaf & Latif, Kashmala & Jiao, Zhilun, 2020. "Heterogeneous effect of eco-innovation and human capital on renewable & non-renewable energy consumption: Disaggregate analysis for G-7 countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    16. Yanbin Chen & Fangxing Li & Zhesheng Qiu, 2013. "Housing and Saving with Finance Imperfection," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 207-248, May.
    17. Jie Chen & William Hardin & Mingzhi Hu, 2020. "Housing, Wealth, Income and Consumption: China and Homeownership Heterogeneity," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(2), pages 373-405, June.
    18. Wang, Zhibao & Wei, Lijie & Zhang, Xiaoping & Qi, Guangzhi, 2023. "Impact of demographic age structure on energy consumption structure: Evidence from population aging in mainland China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    19. Philippe Bacchetta & Kenza Benhima & Yannick Kalantzis, 2013. "Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can This Be Optimal?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 229-262, July.
    20. Xueqiong Zhou & Wenhao Feng, 2023. "Investigating the Impact of Demographic and Personal Variables on Post-Retirement Migration Intention of Rural Residents: Evidence from Inner Mongolia, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-17, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:149:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325005523. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.