IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v148y2025ics0140988325004499.html

Consider payoff or emphasize learning? Exploring the effect of new dual-credit policy on electric vehicle diffusion in complex network

Author

Listed:
  • Zhao, Dan
  • Wang, Jian
  • Li, Wen-wu
  • Tang, Jin-huan
  • Huang, Shuai

Abstract

In recent years, although the overall quality of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry has shown an upward trend, it is difficult to ignore the turbulence in the production and sales of NEV. The impact caused by dual credit policy during the transition needs further analysis. In order to clarify the internal operating mechanism of the new dual-credit policy parameters and stably promote the booming development of the automobile industry, we construct a complex network evolutionary game model to analyze the impact of the new dual-credit policy on the electric vehicle (EV) diffusion, and further discuss the influence of different update strategies on EV diffusion. The results indicate that with the increase of NEV credit accounting coefficient, the upper limit of threshold interval of NEV credit trading price remains unchanged, while lower limit decreases. With the decrease of ratio of standard CAFC to target CAFC or the increase of requirement of NEV credits for fuel vehicle manufacturer, the upper and lower limits of threshold interval of NEV credit price are reduced. With the increasing network scale, the driving effect of Fermi function is gradually superior to EWA algorithm. These results not only reveal the complex mechanism of policy parameters on EV diffusion, but also provide theoretical basis and practical guidance for optimizing NEV industry policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Dan & Wang, Jian & Li, Wen-wu & Tang, Jin-huan & Huang, Shuai, 2025. "Consider payoff or emphasize learning? Exploring the effect of new dual-credit policy on electric vehicle diffusion in complex network," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:148:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325004499
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108622
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988325004499
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108622?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhao, Chuan & Yin, Yutong & Wang, Kun & Ma, Xuying, 2025. "Push or pull? Identifying the OEMs' carbon reduction strategies based on the dynamic evolutionary game approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Fessina, Massimiliano & Zaccaria, Andrea & Cimini, Giulio & Squartini, Tiziano, 2024. "Pattern-detection in the global automotive industry: A manufacturer-supplier-product network analysis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    3. Yuan, Xiaodong & Li, Xiaotao, 2021. "Mapping the technology diffusion of battery electric vehicle based on patent analysis: A perspective of global innovation systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    4. Jia, Tingwen & Li, Chengjiang & Wang, Honglei & Hu, Yu-jie & Wang, Shiyuan & Xu, Guoteng & Hoang, Anh Tuan, 2024. "Subsidy policy or dual-credit policy? Evolutionary game analysis of green methanol vehicles promotion," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    5. Hsieh, I-Yun Lisa & Pan, Menghsuan Sam & Green, William H., 2020. "Transition to electric vehicles in China: Implications for private motorization rate and battery market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    6. Zou, Chen & Huang, Yongchun & Ye, Zi & Qian, Xinyi, 2024. "Analysis of low-carbon technology transfer strategies based on a quadrilateral evolutionary game," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    7. Liu, Xinglong & Zhao, Fuquan & Hao, Han & Liu, Zongwei, 2023. "Comparative analysis for different vehicle powertrains in terms of energy-saving potential and cost-effectiveness in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    8. Meng, Xiangyi & Zhou, Bin, 2023. "Scale-free networks beyond power-law degree distribution," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    9. Yi, Yongxi & Fu, Ao & Li, Yuqiong & Zhang, Aoxiang, 2024. "Battery recycling and coordination in information leakage prevention under blockchain technology in a new energy vehicles supply chain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Zhao, Dan & Wang, Jian & Li, Ye-kai & Tang, Jin-huan & Zhang, Shui-wang, 2024. "How to promote the transition of fuel vehicle enterprises under dual credit policy? An improved tripartite evolutionary game analysis with time delay," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    11. Li, Jizi & Ku, Yaoyao & Yu, Yue & Liu, Chunling & Zhou, Yuping, 2020. "Optimizing production of new energy vehicles with across-chain cooperation under China’s dual credit policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    12. Zhu, Chaoping & Su, Yixuan & Fan, Ruguo & Xu, Ruiheng & Li, Bing, 2025. "Research on the optimal incentive and constraint mechanisms for corporate carbon information disclosure considering different market contexts: A network-based evolutionary game analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    13. Liu, Yajie & Dong, Feng, 2022. "What are the roles of consumers, automobile production enterprises, and the government in the process of banning gasoline vehicles? Evidence from a tripartite evolutionary game model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    14. Fan, Ruguo & Bao, Xuguang & Du, Kang & Wang, Yuanyuan & Wang, Yitong, 2022. "The effect of government policies and consumer green preferences on the R&D diffusion of new energy vehicles: A perspective of complex network games," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    15. Li, Guangyu & Du, Haifeng & He, Xiaochen, 2024. "The evolutionary prisoner’s dilemma game in continuous signed networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    16. Xin He & Shiqi Ou & Yu Gan & Zifeng Lu & Steven Victor Przesmitzki & Jessey Lee Bouchard & Lang Sui & Amer Ahmad Amer & Zhenhong Lin & Rujie Yu & Yan Zhou & Michael Wang, 2020. "Greenhouse gas consequences of the China dual credit policy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    17. Guo, Shiqiang & Wang, Juan & Zhao, Dawei & Xia, Chengyi, 2023. "Role of second-order reputation evaluation in the multi-player snowdrift game on scale-free simplicial complexes," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    18. Li, Jingjing & Jiao, Jianling & Tang, Yunshu, 2019. "An evolutionary analysis on the effect of government policies on electric vehicle diffusion in complex network," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1-12.
    19. Liu, Changyu & Song, Yadong & Wang, Wei & Shi, Xunpeng, 2023. "The governance of manufacturers’ greenwashing behaviors: A tripartite evolutionary game analysis of electric vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    20. Zhao, Dan & Ji, Shou-feng & Wang, He-ping & Jiang, Li-wen, 2021. "How do government subsidies promote new energy vehicle diffusion in the complex network context? A three-stage evolutionary game model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    21. Li, Ping & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2023. "The effects of new energy vehicle subsidies on air quality: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    22. Lin, Boqiang & Zhang, Aoxiang, 2023. "Government subsidies, market competition and the TFP of new energy enterprises," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    23. Ren, Maohui & Zhou, Tao & Wang, ChenXi, 2024. "New energy vehicle innovation network, innovation resources agglomeration externalities and energy efficiency: Navigating industry chain innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    24. Wu, Yu’e & Wang, Xinyu & Liu, Zeyun & Zhao, Xiukun, 2023. "Research on low-carbon technology diffusion among enterprises in networked evolutionary game," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    25. Wu, Yan & Aziz, Syed Mahfuzul & Haque, Mohammed H., 2024. "Vehicle-to-home operation and multi-location charging of electric vehicles for energy cost optimisation of households with photovoltaic system and battery energy storage," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    26. Ji, Shou-feng & Zhao, Dan & Luo, Rong-juan, 2019. "Evolutionary game analysis on local governments and manufacturers' behavioral strategies: Impact of phasing out subsidies for new energy vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    27. Wang, Yiwei & Miao, Qing, 2021. "The impact of the corporate average fuel economy standards on technological changes in automobile fuel efficiency," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    28. Ou, Shiqi & Lin, Zhenhong & Qi, Liang & Li, Jie & He, Xin & Przesmitzki, Steven, 2018. "The dual-credit policy: Quantifying the policy impact on plug-in electric vehicle sales and industry profits in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 597-610.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chenxu Wu & Yuxiang Zhang & Junwei Zhao & Chao Wang & Weide Chun, 2025. "Pricing and Emission Reduction Strategies of Heterogeneous Automakers Under the “Dual-Credit + Carbon Cap-and-Trade” Policy Scenario," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-34, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu, Hui & Li, Ying & Wang, Wei, 2023. "Optimal innovation strategies of automakers with market competition under the dual-credit policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    2. Yao, Xusheng & Shao, Zhiqi & Wang, Ze & Zhu, Zhu & Chen, Zuanxu & Wu, Qingyang, 2025. "Policy incentives and market mechanisms dual-driven framework for new energy vehicles promotion," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    3. Dongpu Fu & Jiarui Sun & Cuiyou Yao & Fulei Shi, 2024. "The influence of policy incentives on the diffusion of battery-swapping taxis and stations: a coupled evolutionary game model in complex networks," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(10), pages 26945-26969, October.
    4. Wu, Yu’e & Yin, Anran & Zheng, Yan & Wang, Xinyu & Zhang, Shuhua, 2025. "Research on the diffusion of electric vehicles based on dynamic games under the influence of environmental regulations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. Wenhui Zhao & Yimeng Liu & Jiansheng Hou & Lifang Liu, 2023. "Impact of Carbon Trading Mechanism Considering Blockchain Technology on the Evolution of New Energy Vehicle Industry in the Post-Subsidy Era," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-18, September.
    6. Chen, Feng & Wu, Bin & Lou, Wen-qian & Zhu, Bo-wen, 2024. "Impact of dual-credit policy on diffusion of technology R & D among automakers: Based on an evolutionary game model with technology-spillover in complex network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    7. Liao, Dongsheng & Tan, Binbin, 2023. "An evolutionary game analysis of new energy vehicles promotion considering carbon tax in post-subsidy era," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    8. Zhu, Chaoping & Wang, Xinhao & Fan, Ruguo, 2025. "Research on the production decisions of vehicle enterprises regarding intelligent transformation under the dual credit and cap-and-trade policies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
    9. Wang, Haonan & Lee, C.K.M. & Ji, Ping & Zhao, Zhonghao, 2025. "Electric bus transition with leasing companies: An evolutionary game theory approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    10. Wu, Yu’e & Liu, Zeyun & Wang, Xinyu & Yin, Anran & Zhang, Shuhua, 2026. "Research on the diffusion of low-carbon technologies through trilateral evolutionary game based on incentive mechanisms," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 516(C).
    11. Zhenyang Pi & Ke Wang, 2026. "Operations and decarbonization of gasoline vehicle automakers under the dual credit policy: green technology innovation and electric vehicle market entry strategies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 359(1), pages 363-394, April.
    12. Nie, Qingyun & Zhang, Lihui & Tong, Zihao & Hubacek, Klaus, 2022. "Strategies for applying carbon trading to the new energy vehicle market in China: An improved evolutionary game analysis for the bus industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    13. Dong-Xiao Yang & Lei Yang & Xiao-Ling Chen & Chan Wang & Pu-Yan Nie, 2023. "Research on credit pricing mechanism in dual-credit policy: is the government in charge or is the market in charge?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 1561-1581, February.
    14. Chu, Yi & Yu, Hui & Li, Ying, 2024. "How do supply- and demand-side dynamics and subsidies affect the prospects for electric vehicle battery swapping services? Evidence from an evolutionary analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    15. Zhu, Ronghui & Ma, Tieju, 2025. "Policy mixes to promote the diffusion of battery electric vehicles with an agent-based model and experiments using the case of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    16. Liu, Songsong & Li, Tingting & Chen, Yurui & Lyu, Chang & Zhai, Fengyong, 2025. "Government subsidy strategies for new energy vehicle charging infrastructure considering consumers’ low-carbon preference: A tripartite evolutionary game model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    17. Liu, Peide & Li, Xina & Li, Jialu, 2023. "Competitive firms’ low-carbon technology diffusion under pollution regulations: A network-based evolutionary analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    18. Liu, Qin & Wen, Xiaonan & Cao, Qinwei, 2023. "Multi-objective development path evolution of new energy vehicle policy driven by big data: From the perspective of economic-ecological-social," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 341(C).
    19. Wu, Yang Andrew & Ng, Artie W. & Yu, Zichao & Huang, Jie & Meng, Ke & Dong, Z.Y., 2021. "A review of evolutionary policy incentives for sustainable development of electric vehicles in China: Strategic implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PB).
    20. Zhu, Chaoping & Su, Yixuan & Fan, Ruguo & Xu, Ruiheng & Li, Bing, 2025. "Research on the optimal incentive and constraint mechanisms for corporate carbon information disclosure considering different market contexts: A network-based evolutionary game analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:148:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325004499. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.