Optimal joint individual and common abort policy for H-out-of-N mission systems

Extensive studies have been dedicated to the modeling and optimization of abort policies (AP) with the aim of balancing mission’s success probability (MSP) with potential losses of valuable systems or components. Existing models primarily focus on individual component aborts. This paper introduces a general model that combines individual and common mission aborts, enhancing the balance between MSP and component losses. Under the proposed model, a five-parameter AP policy is formulated and optimized for a homogeneous H-out-of-N mission system working in random shock settings. A new probabilistic modeling method is put forth to assess the MSP, the expected number of failures, the expected number of successful rescues following the abort, as well as the normalized expected mission losses (NEML) and expected profit. Based on the evaluation of these mission metrics, we formulate and solve the optimal AP problem to achieve a minimization of NEML or a maximization of the expected profit. A case study on a cargo delivery mission carried out by multiple drones is presented to showcase the suggested model and analyze the impacts of critical model parameters, yielding valuable managerial insights. The advantage of using the combined individual and common AP over a pure individual AP is also showcased.