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Analogy-based life cycle forecasts with pre-release buzz

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  • Schaer, Oliver
  • Kourentzes, Nikolaos
  • Fildes, Robert

Abstract

With shorter product life cycles and increased competition, forecasting new product sales prior to launch is vital. We contribute to the new product forecasting literature by augmenting analogy-based approaches with pre-release online search traffic. In contrast to existing research, which relies solely on pre-release buzz during the launch phase, we consider life cycle sales. We propose a model of pre-release online search traffic and market potential, connecting the two to support pre-launch decision-making. We validate this relationship with an empirical experiment on sequential video game sales. Our findings support that pre-release online search traffic contains predictive information up to 18 weeks before release and can increase life cycle sales forecast accuracy by up to 21 %. The explanatory power of pre-release online search traffic varies across product generations. This evolution opens up marketing opportunities and highlights the importance of managing pre-release search interest. Our approach can be implemented with minimal data requirements, making it a versatile and accessible tool for firms. We provide extensive managerial findings and a way forward for incorporating this approach into “new to the world” products.

Suggested Citation

  • Schaer, Oliver & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Fildes, Robert, 2026. "Analogy-based life cycle forecasts with pre-release buzz," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 333(1), pages 88-100.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:333:y:2026:i:1:p:88-100
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2025.12.003
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