Respondent experience and willingness to pay: Reconciling stated preference data with scientific evidence

Stated preference research often includes respondents’ past experiences with environmental events to assess their willingness-to-pay (WTP) for mitigating adverse outcomes. However, the quality of these self-reported experiences has received limited attention. This study employs a choice experiment (CE) model to assess the economic value of an improved red tide (RT) air quality forecasting system in five southwest Florida counties. Unlike traditional studies that focus on nonmarket goods like water or air quality, this study estimates the economic value of improved public information on the location and severity of RT, an important environmental issue that has received limited attention in nonmarket valuation. By integrating survey-elicited experiences with objective scientific data, such as satellite-derived chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations and respiratory irritation (RI) levels from citizen scientists, we validate and enhance the accuracy of respondents’ WTP estimates. We find that respondents prefer a new forecasting system under higher Chl-a and RI levels, and that incorporating scientific data helps improve the validity of WTP estimates. This research contributes to the nonmarket valuation literature by quantifying the value of enhanced forecasting information, and serves as an important step toward linking scientific data with nonmarket economic outcomes for policy development.