Potential for electric vehicle adoption in Midwest US States: A stated preference and two-stage MRP study

Personal vehicle electrification is considered a crucial means of achieving transportation sector decarbonization in the United States. However, existing research often fails to distinguish between different vehicle classes in survey design, with larger vehicle classes frequently being overlooked in analyses. Our survey includes a stated preference experiment on vehicle choice, specifically incorporating pickup truck-specific attributes. We administered the survey in seven states within the United States Midwest. To forecast vehicle fleet trends accurately, we introduce the multi-level regression with poststratification (MRP) choice modeling approach to the transportation forecasting field and provide among the first two-population extensions to MRP in any field. The primary analysis yields vehicle fleet forecasts by public use sampling area (PUMA). The results show that the battery electric pickup truck has the lowest market share with the lowest variation across all PUMAs. Additionally, the findings indicate that charging time exerts the most substantial influence on people's vehicle preferences and large changes in incentives and charging time would be required to generate significant uptake of battery electric vehicles in the US Midwest.