Agricultural landscapes supporting conservation planning: Spatial prioritization of conservation areas for farmland birds

Farmland biodiversity is increasingly threatened by the combined pressures of land-use change and climate change. Effective conservation planning in agricultural landscapes therefore requires spatially explicit evidence that accounts for both drivers. In land-constrained contexts, such as the island of Taiwan, competition among land uses further limits the expansion of formal protected areas for wildlife. To address these challenges, we developed a practical framework to identify candidate Other Effective Area-Based Conservation Measures (OECMs) for farmland bird conservation in Taiwan. We integrated ensemble species distribution models with Dyna-CLUE land-use simulations to map current and future suitable habitat for farmland birds using ten predictors that capture climate conditions, landscape configuration, and human disturbance. Habitat suitability was projected to 2050 under four climate pathways, ranging from a low-emission pathway to a very high-emission pathway (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5), combined with two land-use scenarios representing the absence versus implementation of OECM-based restrictions on land conversion. Current habitat maps identified 114,357 ha of farmland with overlapping suitable habitat across the four focal species as candidate OECMs. Land-use simulations indicated substantial built-up expansion by 2050 and modest farmland loss. Future projections showed scenario- and species-specific shifts in suitable farmland habitat rather than a uniform decline across all scenarios. Monthly mean temperature and precipitation remained important drivers of habitat suitability, indicating that climatic conditions strongly influence where suitable farmland habitat may persist. Land-use scenarios incorporating candidate OECMs generally helped maintain suitable habitat and reduce habitat loss for several species, although the magnitude of the effect varied among species and climate pathways. Overall, these results highlight the potential of candidate OECMs to support Taiwan’s conservation network in agricultural landscapes and offer a transferable approach for integrating biodiversity objectives into long-term farmland planning.