Modelling ecosystem response in the climate change era: the potential distribution of Natura 2000 priority habitat types in Greece under future climate scenarios

Natura 2000 priority habitat types of Greece face significant threats due to climate change. This study tests and demonstrates how distribution modelling predicts priority habitat types’ potential distribution, under various socio-economic scenario pathways extending to the year 2080, by employing MaxEnt species distribution modelling in order to capture habitat-wide climatic and anthropogenic dependencies. Across 10 priority habitat types in this study (10 out of the 18 found in Greece), model training outputs good-to-excellent predictive performance scores, which in turn reveal substantial heterogeneity in future range dynamics. By 2080, seven of the ten habitat types are projected to experience a suitable area contraction, with three (Wooded dunes with Pinus pinea and/or Pinus pinaster [2270], Species-rich Nardus grasslands, on siliceous substrates in mountain areas [6230], and (Sub-)Mediterranean pine forests with endemic blackpines [9530]) projected to lose >90% of suitable area, whereas the remaining types appear comparatively stable or show net expansion. Notably, 2270 is projected to lose all suitable area under all scenarios. Additionally, projected gains in suitability frequently occur far from current ranges and may fall partially outside present-day distributions, indicating potential spatial mismatch and management challenges. This study highlights the urgency for conservation management adapted to the needs of each habitat type in the frame of documented climate change impact, and provides a crucial tool for the implementation of biodiversity policies and strategies for mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on priority habitat types, from the local- to European- scale.