Measurement and prediction of water-energy-food-economy-ecology coupling coordination degree in Shandong Province, China

Seeking an optimization path for the coupling coordination degree (CCD) of water-energy-food-economy-ecology (WEFEE) has systemic significance for improving regional sustainable development level. In this paper, the coupling coordination degree model was applied to measure the CCD of WEFEE in Shandong Province; and a system dynamics model was constructed, combined with scenario analysis methods, to simulate the evolutionary trend of the CCD of WEFEE in Shandong Province under 32 possible development scenarios covering single-objective to full-dimensional integrated policy interventions. The results show that: (1) The development of the subsystems within the WEFEE system in Shandong Province from 2006 to 2022 varies greatly, and the spatiotemporal supply-demand contradictions among the subsystems remain prominent, failing to achieve effective and stable coordinated development during the study period. (2) The CCD of the WEFEE in Shandong Province from 2006 to 2022 is at a relatively low level, fluctuating around the range of 0.47–0.62, showing an upward and then downward trend. (3) The prediction results show that the economic subsystem has the highest average comprehensive evaluation index, followed by the water resources subsystem and the food subsystem. The development of the energy subsystem and the ecology subsystem is relatively poor. (4) Scenario S31 is the optimal scenario for achieving the highest CCD of the WEFEE during the forecast period. The strengthening of the food subsystem has the strongest effect on improving the CCD of the WEFEE, while the strengthening of the economic subsystem has the weakest effect.