Spatial boundaries of urban agriculture and its potential impacts on regulating ecosystem services: The case of Bartın, Türkiye

Green infrastructure has a key role in sustaining the health of urban ecosystems and improving urban resilience. In this context, urban agriculture, regarded as an important element of green infrastructure, needs to be examined in relation to its positive contributions to ecosystem services. This study identifies areas suitable for urban agriculture through an approach aligned with ecosystem-based management principles and evaluates their spatial relationships with ecosystem services. A new model was developed to define the spatial extent of urban agriculture, and a GIS-supported multi-criteria suitability analysis was conducted with 14 criteria derived from literature and field observations, supported by assessments from 15 experts. The importance of ecosystem services and their interaction with land-use categories were examined by 16 experts, and the weighted results show that regulating services constitute 58.9% of the total value. According to the combined evaluation of regulating ecosystem services and urban-agriculture suitability classes 64.96% of the area falls within the Conservation Oriented Utilization Zone, 26.98% within the Strict Protection Zone, 5.23% within the Controlled Landscape Utilization Zone, 1.42% within the Potential Landscape Utilization Zone, and 1.41% within the Restricted Landscape Utilization Zone. The sensitivity levels of the data were evaluated using a Monte Carlo based uncertainty analysis. In line with Türkiye’s 2053 vision, a three-stage strategic pilot model was prepared for the periods 2025–2030, 2031–2040, and 2041–2053. The model sets out exemplary core actions for urban agriculture practices that can be implemented in medium-sized cities in Türkiye or in cities with similar development characteristics.