Operationalizing ecosystem service flows in land-use planning: Mitigating ecological risks through dynamic compensation

Effective integration of cross-regional ecosystem service flows into land-use planning requires dynamic compensation mechanisms to address spatial supply-demand mismatches. While existing approaches focus on static local balances, this study develops an operational framework combining Gaussian two-step floating catchment area method, field strength model, and quadrant analysis to quantify flow paths, intensities and magnitudes for ecological risk mitigation. Using the Tianshan Mountains urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2020 as a case study, we first calculated precise supply-demand ratios for carbon sequestration, food production and water yield services, revealing distinct spatial patterns with average values of −1.39 × 10⁻⁴, 1.52 × 10⁻³ and −2.39 × 10⁻⁴ respectively. The analysis identified 39.38 % of the region as water yield surplus areas, contrasting with only 0.89 % for food production surpluses. Through integrated application of distance decay modeling and flow path analysis, we mapped significant spatial variations in service transfer capacities. The quadrant-based zoning approach delineated eight functional management units, including high-supply cores and ecological risk zones covering 6.30 % to 26.9 % of the territory across different services. Our dynamic compensation framework operationalizes these flow metrics through three actionable components: spatially-explicit deficit-surplus matching, flow corridor prioritization, and adaptive zoning thresholds. The methodology provides land-use planners with a transferable toolkit for quantifying cross-jurisdictional service transfers, optimizing compensation schemes, and integrating ecological security into urban expansion policies. These advances demonstrate how spatially-explicit flow analysis can transform theoretical ecosystem service concepts into practical land-use governance instruments for sustainable regional development.