Integrated system dynamics and life cycle assessment modeling for carbon mitigation pathways in China's industrial mariculture

Industrial mariculture in China is an efficient aquaculture approach that provides high production and high-quality protein. However, the challenge of carbon emissions has become a hot-spot, which seriously hinders the sustainable development of this sector. This study conducts simulation and prediction of the carbon emissions under the background of carbon neutrality and carbon peaking. The aim of this study was to effectively mitigate the carbon emissions and explore pathways for carbon reduction in the system. Specifically, 10 coastal provinces with this industry were selected, and an integrated system dynamics (SD) - life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology was applied. This model transforms the static inventory data from LCA into dynamic variables for the SD model. Subsequently, a carbon reduction SD simulation model and 17 simulation scenarios (S1–S17) were developed for the period of 2013–2060. The results show that the inter-sectoral synergy scenario (ISS, S17) achieves the most effective carbon reduction, reducing carbon emissions by 99.4 % compared to the baseline scenario. This scenario is projected to reach the carbon emission peak in 2033 and achieve carbon neutrality in 2050. The simulation results for each province indicate that the carbon emission trends in most provinces correspond with the national trend. Among them, Shandong reaches carbon peak and neutrality earliest with high resource efficiency, while Hainan stagnates in emission reduction due to fossil fuel reliance. Based on the research findings, the feasible carbon mitigation pathways were identified, and opportunities and strategies for the sustainable development of China’s aquaculture sector were also highlighted.